Hi LuckyV It wouldn't surprise me to see NCM go back to where...

Hi LuckyV

It wouldn't surprise me to see NCM go back to where the final leg down all started at 16.55 if the theme of expanding margins and solid production are confirmed by the financial accounts.

But first step is to break out from the bolinger on the upside at 13.21....that would indicate to me that the consolidation period is over

The real need to write down assets has been taken off the table since Dec with the rapid turnaround in POG AUD over and above all of the costs per ounce to produce, all production lines are in theory now solidly profitable.  Probability of Asset writedowns because of the AUD being much higher than the  long term assumptions has also eased

Risk are miss in production
Costs not falling because of the diesel hedge that was in place last report and people being disappointed (NCM imo should hedge more oil down here if possible)
Unhedged USD  which can be affected by a production miss and disappointing cashflow

Technically, on the weekly it has just crossed the 50 and 100dma with a gap up to 21 which is the 200dma



Its the Monthly chart that I am interested in ATM, using a 50-100-200dma you can see the collapse of the shares when it broke down below the 200 dm at 16.55...................looking for 13.21 to start and future confirmation in the account as to what has actually been achieved in terms of cashflow and debt balance.

Gold POG aud will need to keep rising to keep it moving.  I like this chart as much as I like the chart at high 20's which got me thinking it was a screaming sell.

Short positions are only just over 1PC so there is some fuel but not a massive amount, I think as orwell was saying there could be some chasing about to start in the only sector moving north.

NO GUARANTEE, but the figures are looking good for NCM at the moment, still some time to be constructive imo with gold still looking to break rather than defend the 200DMA which is a couple of % higher.

She is a price taker, and at the moment she is being given a lot of good things.

Monthly chart FYI, using simple Bollinger and 50-100-200dma..........