targets, page-8

MY TARGET.
Based on recent presentation, REFER Page 10 – 12 inclusive.
Peak sales Estimate from PAGE 10
8 week PFS generates peak sales estimate of $465 Million peak sales.
Further expanded use (1st Line MCRC) of HA-irinoecan generates estimated peak sales of 1.7Billion (would include additional trial(s))
Expected 90% gross margin for US market.

Compare the competition.
Erbitux – (1st line mCRC) – PFS improvement 6.5 weeks
2012 total sales 1.85 Billion (includes other cancers)
Avastin – (2nd line mCRC) PFS improvement 10.5 weeks
2012 total sales of over $6Billion (includes other cancers)
DO THE SUMS
HA-irinotecan PFS improvement 8 weeks
Total sales estimate $465 Million (no other cancers YET)
485 Million, Profit 436 Million, 40% Royalities on sales gives Alchemia 186 million in earnings.
186 Million + 20 Million Fonda totals $206 Million
EPS $0.61 PE of 15 + Share Price of $ 9.25
HA-irinotecan PFS improvement 12 weeks
Total sales estimate $1.7 Billion (requires additional trials)
1.7 Billion, Profit 1.5 Billion, 40% Royalities on sales gives Alchemia 680 Million in earnings.
680 Million + 20 Million Fonda totals $700 Million
EPS $2.09 PE of 15 + Share Price of $ 31.35
Pfizer is the obvious suitor and would of ramped up talks once Merck Serona jumped on board with a Phase II CHIME trial to investigate Erbitux in conjunction with HA, see Erbitux above and the sales of 1.6 BILLION a YEAR.
But maybe its Merck Serona wanting to protect its 1st line treatment, they are obviously interested.
A few things that make me really interested are
One ALCHEMIA currently has a lot of data even if its Blinded bearing in mind the first few patients receive the HA arm, this clearly would give them an indication.
Two the difficulty in finding tumours to biopsy in the SCLC trial.
Three the Phase III trial extending time lines to result.
Four Merck jumping on board for the CHIME study.
Five there are very few late stage oncology clinical assets available
Six Novozymes being the supplier of the HA for the finished drugs
Seven the patient cliff and the need for Large Pharma to extend the life of their key assets. Again Pfizer needs to breath life into Irinoecan
Eight the S1 is still alive and waiting.
Nine, many more targets for Alchemias’ HA.
Alchemia could be another Peptech Aka Arana.
I suspect $5.50 in one year because it could rapidly do a Mesoblast, Market cap 1.8 Billion
I will sell half then and let it ride to $10