Tassal Group Strategic Thoughts, page-117

I didnt factor in a reduced inventory, because i suspect they want to keep it a high'ish level to better develop the value added, branded sales.

I assumed they would sell all they plan to harvest (on a net basis), so 40kt sold, assumed domestic steady at 28.6kt, which leaves 11.4kt for export for the year, based on past history about 70% of full year export happens in H1, which gets me to 8kt.

I used an average price of $14.7 for the half, and a cost price $9.52 (Price/kg-EBITDA/kg) which is the same as domestic cost last, but higher than the 8.80 in H1 last year.

So 8kt at $5.10 EBITDA/kg = $41m EBITDA for the half.

Corresponding half last year was $8.8m EBITDA, so an improvement of $32.2m, Depreciation, Amortization or Interest shouldn't change per kg since then, so it all falls through except for tax.

We usually dont pay 30% tax, but i have to assume that because its a bit beyond me to guestimate less.

$32.2m minus 30% = $22.5m NPAT, divided by $212m shares = 10.6cps

An error might be i used the average price of $14.7 based on Chinese prices and the average Q1 being marginally higher than the price for the half, but i forgot that Chinese prices are a bit above our overall export prices, so that could be an error of 20%, but i have to go back and guestimate more or wait for worldbank data for their q1 picture.

I didnt factor any increase in domestic prices, despite possible pricing pressure due to competition from exports.

My H1 export price is a lot different from dabozza full year price, that would be the main source of different views.