Tassal Group Strategic Thoughts, page-12

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noomxx

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13/02/21

00:11

Post #: 50950073
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Originally posted by McQuade: ↑

Agree with you on intrinsic value.
Disagree on your consensus estimate analysis. The two brokers are conservative, and with good reason. These recent earnings downgrades are in response to the reality of lower salmon prices...and what if these prices persist for 12 months?
Would be ugly for short to medium term earnings, would stretch the balance sheet further and may cause serious distress, particularly to HUO.
And beating consensus consistently? Smoke and mirrors. What you need to track is the change in consensus earnings over the course of a year. Ryan is notorious for starting the year happy with consensus forecasts then guide them lower. So TGR beats consesnus earnings but they are not the same consensus earnings that we were looking at the start. Chart changes to consensus, it'll give you a different picture.
And as for beating FY22+, well by the time we get there FY22 forecasts will look very different to what they are today.

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Great post McQuade. Again lets wait for the half year results, both to see the details from a personal viewpoint, but also to get input from the analyst community. From this future extrapolations will be clearer. (Whilst i dont listen to analysts price targets, i find the details in the reports very useful, including detailed future financials, easier than me trying to re-create them).

TGR Price at posting: $3.33 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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Tassal Group Strategic Thoughts, page-12

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