Im still working on the model, one mistake i have made is dividend is minimum of 50% of Operating NPAT, i need to distinguish between underlying/statutory and operating before im confident i got that right, which means i have to understand the leases...
The dividend payout makes a fair bit of difference because the remainder is reducing debt.
Its pretty easy to get a 10% variation at this stage, but if anything its starting to look better over the mid-term than i expected (a couple of years) due to recovery in prices, end of significant items (freight), and prawn growth, earnings could double pretty quickly.
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