Tassal Group Strategic Thoughts, page-303

WARNING: Earning guesstimate incoming...

In Huon H1 result last year, they had international freight rates at $3.30 per kg, which i guess must include the subsidy.

If that applied to this halves $16.83 average, it brings "returns" down to about $13.53, which is almost at domestics $13.58, in which case it doesnt matter who if sales are domestic or export, all it comes down to is volume.

Combine revenue for Tassal and Huon in H1 last year was 475m, so the increase of $100m from China should mean revenue up by 25% average between us, with increased costs of about $36m (4kt x 9$).

$64m should flow through to increase in EBITDA between us, take out 30% tax, the rest steady, leaves $44.8m falling through to profit.

Assume its goes equally between us, $22.4m profit above our $27.6m in H1 FY21, ~$50m NPAT over 212m shares, means EPS of $0.235, and we can expect a dividend of half that, $0.12 per share, probably a reasonable chance it being fully franked due to about $20m tax being paid and biomass steady, bring it to 0.156 (includes franking credit), thats 4.5% of the current SP even if FY dividend was 0

There are quite a few assumptions, and i could be out for lots of reasons, im just trying to get a ballpark number, i would be happy if i was within 10%, so use your own judgement.