I meant to be working today Bug1! Alright, so I went back to trade data too
I have not looked at the air freight / subsidy, and I have assumed that December 2021 will match November (should be higher) because the data is yet to be released:
|
| Netweight (kg) | Trade Value (US$) |
|
|
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1 | CY20 | 22,693,123 | $168,994,508 |
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|
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2 | 2H20 | 7,230,450 | $58,109,737 |
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3 | 1H21 | 15,462,673 | $110,884,771 |
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4 | CY21 | 26,273,559 | $267,024,957 | 58% | $s vs 2020 |
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5 | 2H21 | 8,205,519 | $71,240,762 | 23% | $s vs 1H20 |
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6 | 1H22 | 18,068,040 | $195,784,195 | 77% | $s vs 1H20 |
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Tassal exported 8,889t or 38% of all salmon in FY21 by volume, and $88m or 48% by value.
Huon at 30 June 2021 had only $20m of finished goods / inventory after selling into the bad market;
Tassal at 30 June 2021 had $115m of finished goods and had increased to ~7,000t their freezers.
No less than 9000t (50%) of 2H21 will be Tassal, but this could be as high as 12,000t (66%) of the total exports.
In FY20 Tassal exported AUD$105m, and in FY21 AUD$95m excluding freight. Expecting 1H22 to be AUD$139-$167m including freight.
Export prices are expected to hold up at ~68-70NOK (current levels) through to June 2022.
Anyway, it should be a fun report. I think domestic will be holding up too, but I am a bit concerned with all the supply chain issues coming from the likes of Inghams that may also impact Tassal. Let's see.