Tassal Group Strategic Thoughts, page-483

Looks like supply problems in Japan as well, as well as having logistics problems from airspace lockdowns, Japan has been importing a fair bit of salmon from Russia, and they have removed 'most favoured trade status from Russia.

https://salmonbusiness.com/japanese-sushi-prices-soar-as-russian-sanctions-hit-industry/

Looking at Comtrade for Dec, Japan get most of its salmon frozen from Chile (15kt) which they shouldnt have a problem with, they also imported 4.5kt fresh from Norway which will be reduced, and also 2kt of different types of frozen salmon from Russia.

Our fresh (375t in December) supply could rise to take up the slack from Norway logistic problems, but i guess it would be Chile lifting its volume from problems with Russia's supply.

Reflecting on December prices i posted previously, it was the rise in price from non-China countries that lifted the average price, and that could happen further now with Japan and Korea supply problems.

The way the market is looking with supply problems it seems reasonable to assume we can maintain something like the January record price of $16.78, which is $2/kg improvement over H1. It should be getting us close to the magical point where returns from export prices are putting pressure on domestic supplies. (but where are told there are price increases in the works for domestic as well)