Tassal-Group.PDFGoldman Sachs has updated its research for TGR. Despite the headwinds listed (mostly, 'oversupply -- global prices' and 'currency') it still forecasts revenue growth of ten percent and retains a "Buy" rating. GS lists positive reasons to buy and hold TGR -- some of which we've discussed here over the past month or so. I won't provide a page-by-page review of the article and risk annoying readers with my commentary. I'll just upload it and allow others to read for themselves.
I note the expectation that the Exmoor Station expansion may be delayed "due to current market conditions". I would have thought the time to expand would be now, and then have the capacity to ramp-up production when/as the prawn market conditions improve; rather than waiting for prices to peak and then not be ready for increased demand. I found the discussion regarding the sale of excess land in the next few months to be enlightening as well. Like other holders, I'm looking forward to the company's updated guidance in the next week or two.
We sell most of our salmon domestically and are the main player. I've looked at our competitors' financials and HC forum pages (thanks, Hopeful!) and was not impressed with what I saw. I would much, much rather be holding TGR, which has a clear pathway to growth through prawns and selling larger salmon, a history of expanding revenue and growing dividend payments. Also, our management seems to really know what it's doing. As a commentor here wrote a few weeks ago, high quality products find their market so with excellent growing conditions and an increasing use of technology to monitor, feed and grow our products, I feel comfortable with my investment.
I have no idea what the $US / $AU currencies will do in the next twelve months nor can I control the global salmon price. I've said this before...we only really need one of the unknowns to clear up and I feel TGR will be quickly re-rated given its historical stability, slow steady growth and dividends.
These are only my own observations, of course. Good luck to everyone here.
