Mate, you're an absolute machine! Awesome work on crunching those numbers. If you're following any other stocks like this, please let me know!
I was surprised that Chile didn't follow the same sort of trend as we did for exports from the southern hemisphere. I wonder if that is because of their emphasis on the North American market, so perhaps during the Q4 and Q1 they can get better prices there rather than in China for example. As far as I remember, a while ago the Asian market wasn't a priority for the South Americans at all.
The huge distribution you see with the Australian peak-to-trough (~200k to ~1700k tonnes) is because the salmon in Tasmania is grown in warmer waters then the rest of the world. So as the water warms up (which is Q1), the growth of salmon slows down dramatically. Down where I am in southern Vic, the warmest months is always around February. Whereas you compare that to Norway or Faroe Islands (Denmark), the waters are much cooler and so they have relatively more stable production throughout the year - again the variation may also be because of US markets. UK (which is actually Scotland) is water and more variable.
The other important factor I would guess is that the total Australian production is what - probably ~90k-100ktonne at the moment? This has increased by a good +10k tonne in recent year or two from Huon, which is set to stay. Petuna is relatively flat, and Tassal' increase is pretty moderate based largely on efficiency improvements. Of that total production, the domestic market consumes ~75%. So our exports is cyclical based on production periods: when production is greater in the Q3-Q4, we export the excess. Compare that again to any of the other major producers, and you'll see the level of domestic consumption is much lower. This to my belief is the major advantage of Tassal relative to any other major producer, they are less dependent and less impacted by the volatile export market.
TGR Price at posting:
$3.56 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
