The Tasmanian state election is this Saturday. The 35 total lower house seats will be elected in five seven-member electorates using the proportional Hare Clark system, up from 25 total seats at previous elections. A quota for election is one-eighth of the vote, or 12.5%, down from 16.7% at previous elections.
The Poll Bludger on Friday reported The Mercury had a Freshwater poll taken a “fortnight ago” for an undisclosed client. This poll had samples of 800 in each of the five electorates. It suggested the Liberals would win 15 of the 35 seats, Labor nine, the Greens four, the Jacqui Lambie Network three and independents four.
In Braddon, this poll gave the Liberals 49%, Labor just 15%, JLN 13% and independents 10%, suggesting Labor would win just one of Braddon’s seven seats, with the Liberals taking four, JLN one and an independent one. Labor would win two seats in each of the other four electorates, with the Greens and independents strong in Clark.
While the Liberals would be short of the 18 seats needed for a majority, the 15 seats they would win if this poll is accurate would give them a far better chance to form government than Labor. Freshwater’s federal polls have usually been better for the Coalition than other polls.
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the Libs would need 3 independents to sign support for the Lib Govt.
bvut if the Labs form a coalition with Greens and JLNs they would need 2 independents.
anything is possible though I doubt the Labs have a chance in hell of getting the others on side.
it looks like the Libs won't be better off given they couldn't Marshall the Independents pre-election and it was this difficulty that is the stated primary reason for the election.
