Haha. Ok, I'll play. Edwards have a Price to Sales ratio of a bit over 8x. Medtronic are in the mid-3's. Let's pick something in the middle, say 5x. On a $10bn per annum revenue market, if we hit 50% market share (I think we will beat that) that's $5b x 5 = $25b market cap. USD. The market is growing in excess of 10% per annum, allowed for in the PSR multiple, but probably on the low side if the Edwards multiple is anything to go by. How long to get to that market share? Say it takes 10 years (I reckon it will be less). Discounting at 15%pa gives value of $6.2bn USD. Or pretty close to $10bn AUD. Give it a bit of a haircut because there's still some execution risk and we don't have final approval from regulators yet... say 50% (very conservative in my view), gives $5bn AUD. But then there's Valve-in-Valve to add back in. It will potentially happen sooner given the results out of Canada and DurAVR is giving better results in-valve than the original value gave! How much do you add on ... $1bn? $2bn? $5bn? It's a big market all on its own, with a bubble of replacements to come as the original valves reach their end of life. Assume mitral too early and has nil value. So with all that margin/buffer, still looking at between $5-10bn. And it will increase quickly as all the discounting unwinds (both for risk and as commercialisation approaches).
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