I agree with both of you actually! If 10m was looking likely to...

I agree with both of you actually! If 10m was looking likely to be blown out of the water the Captain would have dropped all mention of it from the most recent news release and let the market figure out that there was no way it was going to be reached. My take is they are still very much targeting 10m, but it's going to be tight. One nasty natural disaster could quickly erode any chance of hitting this even with the move toward the agency model.

My own modelling works on a 8-9m assumption. 10 is outperform.