FLC 2.04% 10.0¢ fluence corporation limited

Glad to see all the excitement in the stock and I suspect it...

  1. 34 Posts.
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    Glad to see all the excitement in the stock and I suspect it will go a lot higher, however some things to consider:
    1. No RaaS contract yet (promised for last year);
    2. First certification in China targeted for Q1, now Q2;
    3. Delivery of next three China plants pushed back to Q2 and Q3 for certification;
    4. First China production was for late Q2/early Q3. Now sounds more like late Q3; and
    5. It takes 6 months to build a production line and only 1 under construction. A decision to build the 2nd has not been made yet. This does limit sales to US$75m and will keep a lid on the sales ramp in the next 12 months.

    IMO, Chinese customers will want confidence in the product before rolling out large numbers of plants. I believe EMC will be very successful, though there are signs that the ramp up may not be as fast as anticipated.
    Insto buyers are the ones that will create the demand and push the share price up. They are unlikely to commit in size until certification and first material orders achieved in China. This feels at least 6 months away. However other smaller catalysts exist (first RaaS, commentary on the call indicated this was close) and management indicated they have enough cash to get through ramp up unless there is a transaction. Does this imply something is brewing? It does feel like a good time to accumulate a position.
    I am bullish, but there are challenges.
    No price target on the research report because it has a speculative buy recommendation and difficult to value a loss making business without an order book to accurately predict future sales.
 
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10.0¢
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Mkt cap ! $108.0M
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