Senoj yes it will directly compete with Relenza - that might be...

Senoj yes it will directly compete with Relenza - that might be a problem for GSK but not Biota.

GSK's best move is to increase production radically because the world wants anti-virals NOW. And though LANI trials set to be finalised soon, even a positive result and fast tracking wouldn't see sales until 2010-2011 in my opinion. thus there's a window for pushing Relenza hardcore now and squeezing it for it's delicious juices.

But people are not waiting for royalties - the announcement of success is all it needs. Because then LANI will become the number 1 BY FAR choice in antivirals, as it lasts a week+ and thus can be given for prophylaxis as well as treatment = tamiflu market + relenza market + low-risk flu vaccine market (eg. close contacts).

Also BTA get only 7% royalties for Relenza which is only ~25% of the market. The licensing deal they could get from this would be much bigger (considering the cash they will have to contribute to starting capital) with a bigger market share. Though even a 7% deal from LANI will buy me a new house. Too bad I have such a limited amount to invest (but a multibagger is good however much you have in I guess - I'm a doctor so I've got no clue on leverage and gearing etc and all those fancy things).

And yes the company has a few genius side-projects that look great but are way to far off to be accurately priced. As one of the analyst reports mentions about this factor - one successful PhaseII trial does not a company make.

PS. Excuse the spelling it was a long day today. I saw way too many gential lesions today at work (emergency department).