tb long term forecast of 96 cents

In July of 2010 TB came out with a long term forecast of 96 cents. Now i have done some sums to see how this might be possible going forward.

The Hawk Spring Project

Assuming 413,000 barrels per well

Contingent reserve 36.1 million bbls

NPV 10 is $18.90 per bbl

Total NPV $682 million

Per ADS $6.84 (AUS 32 cents)

Above are SSN estimations in the Niobrara, but in the recent quarterly report TB has now valued the Permian and Pennsylvanian formation (traps) which adds approx 25 MMSTB to their contingent reserves.

These additional plays if successful will increase the contingent reserve to 61 Million bbls, equal to 10.88 ADS or 52 cents (AUS) valuation. This calculation was based on the details in TB email which I posted on the 19.04.11.

TB has the Bakken at $45 Million for the 6 wells. We now have 3 infill wells and ready to test the 3 forks formation which could give SSN a total of 18 wells for the project on 1200 net acres. Fully developed I have the Bakken at a conservative $90 - $120 Million

724,000 Bbls per well
NPV 10 US$40 per bbl
5 wells at 30%
1 well at 10%
Net SSN reserve 1.158 mmstb
NPV 10 US $45 million

The icing on the cake if correct will be the additional 20,000 acres in North Dakota, with approximately 100 wells on 160 acre spacing and if successful with 3 forks formation fully developed could bring a total in excess of 200 wells. If you allow 724,000 bbls per well (TB estimations in the Bakken). It will make the Niobrara look like the next side show.




So as you can see $1 is very possible, but what i like more are the areas SSN have chosen to be in. The Niobrara and Bakken are the hottest shale plays in the US at the moment, which will help secure and grow the future of the company and its shareholders.

These figures are only my estimations and not financial
advice

GLTA