TBI results - not long to go

Not long until the TBI results are released – could be as little as 12 trading days away. Even though Rett and Fragile X have potentially bigger end markets, imo the results of the TBI trial are the most important yet and will have big implications either way.


Positive TBI result

- Deal / acquisition negotiations will be brought to a head pretty quickly. I think we would see a deal within 3-6 months following positive results. Any deal should be above the US$1b mark…hopefully well above. It would be good to see Neuren with a market cap of $500m - $700m prior to a deal coming through. I’m not sure whether it will be a licence or buyout…could go either way.

- Positive TBI results will add further weight to the results from the first two Phase II trials (Rett and Fragile X). I think some investors are still a bit cautious given the small sample size and duration of these trials…however positive results from a larger trial will be a strong sign that trofinetide works.

- Neuren would be a very good chance of receiving breakthrough therapy designation for TBI on the back of positive results. That would be a great kicker if it was received prior to a deal being done.


Negative TBI result

- Neuren will need to push ahead with Rett and Fragile X development…and any potential partner/acquirer may want to see further data (from phase IIb trials) before committing to a deal.

- Investor confidence will probably be impacted for a few months, until results from the Rett phase IIb trial are released at the end of the year.

- Deal size would obviously be impacted….if TBI results are poor it will be interesting to see whether Neuren waits for Rett Phase IIb data to strengthen their negotiation position (results could always be poor so there is risk in this), or look to mitigate their risk and lock in a deal while the interest is there.  


I think Neuren isn’t far off being fair value at the current market cap of roughly $200m...it should probably be a bit higher but if TBI results come through positive then we can just sit back and wait for the deal.


Here’s hoping to positive TBI results.