cyclones usually need a sea surface temp of 26.5 or above to...

cyclones usually need a sea surface temp of 26.5 or above to survive, the water south of carnarvon is well below that also given the expected wind shear she is expected to encounter she could shred herself to bits hopefully all we"ll get is a bit of rain , however she is showing a lot of similarities to cyclone alby
link to ssts http://www.marine.csiro.au/~lband/web_point/