CXY cougar energy limited

team ucg

  1. 40,100 Posts.
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    I am not entirely comfortably with some recent posting themes.

    I definitely want CXY, CNX and LNC all to succeed in commercialising UCG ... it would be refreshing one day to actually have a powerful UCG lobby.

    LNC was blessed with surplus coal assets that may eventually be sold for considerable cash to help fund their own UCG and GTL technology development and initial project(s). Their style is multiple global deals/mou's and flagging target outcomes early and dealing with successes and disappointments as they come. It is not entirely clear what successes were achieved with Gasifiers 1-3 and they have now ignited Gasifier 4. Mkt cap is probably something around $700 mill.

    CNX hit the road running with a name technology branding (CSIRO) requiring development, an early cornerstone investor (IPL) for UCG to fertiliser, and a "compelling" campaign of "new" CRIPS vs "old" Russian UCG methods. CNX has dealt with successes and disappointments as they come and are currently dealing with either remediating Gasifier 1 or building Gasifier 2, delayed commissioning of a 5MW syngas engine generator, CSIRO selling down and a private equity firm becoming a new cornerstone investor, and a silent IPL. Mkt cap is probably something around $250-300 mill.

    CXY is the enigma. Strong, maybe. Silent, sometimes. Using the known, largely proven Ergo Exergy UCG technology. Factual, sequential announcements around a steadfast theme of constructing Australia's first commercial UCG project, 200 MW powergen at Kingaroy, for which it is now nearly 2 wks into the pre-production burn. Multiple early stage, multi faceted projects overseas and here in Australia. Hasn't ever seriously over promised and hasn't yet over delivered. Hasn't had to deal with any major disappointments thus far. Mkt cap around $105 mill.

    At this point in time, the market is valuing the technology developers (LNC, CNX) ... the deal maker (LNC) ... name technology branding and cornerstone investor (CNX).

    At this point in time the market is not valuing (or believing) the user of existing largely proven UCG technology (CXY) ... advanced planning for a commercial UCG powergen project (CXY) ... and a strategy to roll out multiple similar powergen projects (CXY)

    Imo, the relative market caps are in a tender state of flux ... a serious technical setback for any of the three could see a halving or worse of mkt cap virtually overnight ... drifting timelines from any of the three will see a grinding down of mkt caps ... the reverse being the case for technical success or shortening of timelines.

    I have the view that as the UCG industry matures through "legitimisation", the market will begin to value UCG technology performance, commercialisation potential, project timelines, the quality of partnerships and the rigor of business strategies.

    I have the feeling LNC ran frenzied from kickoff had to bench itself to gain breath, CNX has played a steady but so far unremarkable game and CXY benched itself from kickoff and has now just run onto the field with fresh legs to deliver the match winning try for Team UCG lol.

    As always, a little more time may tell.
 
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