T/A has its place of course but we must understand the...

T/A has its place of course but we must understand the demographic of people who use these triggers and the demographic of people who don't.

If you take a stock which has a large retail holder base, where in fact 60 or 70% of the shares are held by small retail holders then you have a stock where it is very likely that technical signals will have a significant effect on the way it moves.

If you take a stock like EXT where about 90% of the shares are held in the hands of other mining companies, mining companies who would make their buy/sell decisions on purely a fundamental basis, then we have a stock which is less likely to be bought or sold on chart signals and more likely to be bought or sold on fundamental news. Drill results, JORC statements etc will sway these large holders not bollinger bands, MACD and Stochastic signals.

Having said that, the little itty-bitty bunch of shares which are traded back and forth by the retail holders IS somewhat subject to the vagaries of the tech signals and it is the agreed price between these traders which we tend to focus on, the ASX price.

What are we talking about here? I guess we are talking about (maybe) 5% of the shares, is that about right? Could be a bit more, could be a bit less but what we are saying is that roughly 95% of the shares are valued by the geologists, accountants and mining professionals employed by large mining firms and they are holding their shares. Obviously they believe the value is higher than the current ASX traded price.

The roughly 5% of shares traded by the small-time retail traders (who may or may not know something about mining) are fluctuating in value on a minute to minute basis as they trade the shares back and forth between themselves.

One could make some money, maybe a few thousand dollars, by trying to anticipate what those little trades will do. You could get in and get out and make 20% or lose a little. You may even be able to do it a few times over the week. How good are you at that?

So I agree with Beer Baron, the fluctuation he has described is possible. The ASX agreed price between the traders can do anything. A bad night on the DOW, a new exciting stock they need the funds for or the school holidays are coming and they need to cash up for the ski trip, anything can effect them and have them selling in greater numbers.

But really, what does anyone here want? I will tell you what I want. I want to make money and I want that to be as much of a certainty as I can make it.

If you want to make money and you want to be certain you will make money, then hold. It is as simple as that.

If you take your eyes off the fluctuating 5% and put your eyes on the ever-increasing (7 fold this year?) 95% you will see how to make money.

If you bought today and held you will have at least doubled your money by September this year.