techies have a look, page-27

re: techies have a look .. for dnatron Arhidas

I have no doubt about the highgrading you mention at Murrin Murrin. I just found it interesting that ANL doesn't make conspicuous mention of things like tonnes mined, tonnes treated, and ore grade. These are figures that are often given prominent mention in the reports of mining companies.

You would have to admit that the deal struck with creditors is utterly remarkable, but it also belies their faith in Murrin Murrin. The creditors even declined an opportunity of perhaps a further 225 MAUD for funding Stage II of the arbitration hearing!

ANL has been playing the same music for the past few years (plant problems nearly fixed, big court win near, takeover possibilities by the "BIG BOYS"etc) and there has been no shortage of people willing to dance to it. I agree with you that the current valuation is generous, but I also think that you are discounting the potential value if Murrin Murrin produces at values closer to design. (For what it's worth, Arhidas, I dont think that it will.) If greatly improved production is achieved then I think that a plan to increase capacity will be rapidly drawn up and implemented. I believe that this is where the profitability for Murrin Murrin lies.

Highgrading is at least buying ANL some time, but its fate will hinge on the performance of Murrin Murrin. I will be interested to see what the cash burn rate is at the end of April. Glencore will also start chewing into the company from next month, so unless production increases, ANL will be out of cash before year end. Talk about cutting it fine.

My gingerbread man analogy may have merit yet.

Billy

ps nice to see sgw improving