There is absolutely no way this will be an early takeover - Craig & co own control over 30% of this company, and will have their own multi-billion dollar target valuations. It's safe to say that given the total addressable market of combined product lines.
IMO they wouldn't be interested in a sale under $10Bn. Why would you sell early with protected, market leading, unique IP that sits in multiple markets totalling more than $400bn? CDX has the potential to be significantly bigger than RMD - yes there are lot of milestones to hit - but the products and mgt are strong enough.
In regard to the management options - I think the reason they laid out all the milestones to 50c is that they know they can achieve this much quicker than the market thinks. It simply easier to justify large performance shares through multiple target prices instead of one big allotment. I'm calling 50c year will be in the rear mirror year end, and alot sooner than that with production ramped up, contracts made, and distribution channels opened.
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