If my understanding is correct - 1P is resources that are 100% likely to be recoverable (i.e. "Certain"); 2P is at least 50% likely to be recoverable (i.e. "Probable"); and 3P is at least 10% likely to be recoverable ( i.e. "Possible"). below these categories are the "C" categories of reserves which are classified as "contingent".
These probabilities, AFAIK, relate to geological issues, not commercial issues.
So, I would assume that the movement between categories of "P" is based on an independent assessment of the likelihood of recovery from a geological standpoint.
Technical Analysis, page-121
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