Nope Nothing to see here, market is all over this ;-)Note AI...

Nope Nothing to see here, market is all over this ;-)

Note AI analysis in play so please check & dyor.. h8tey

This image is a geological map of OZ Minerals' (OZM) gold projects in the Laverton region of Western Australia, specifically focusing on the Mulgabbie and Patricia projects. The map highlights several key features:

• Projects and Resources:
  • Mulgabbie (3.5Moz) and Patricia are the main focus, with other nearby projects like Apollo Hill (0.944Moz), Red October (0.144Moz), and Rebecca (0.78Moz).
  • The map shows gold resources in million ounces (Moz), e.g., Granny Smith (9.7Moz) and Sunrise Dam (10.3Moz).
• Geological Zones:
  • The area spans tectonic zones like Keith Kilkenny, Mt Horner Shear Zone, and Laverton Tectonic Zone.
  • Geological features include east-west dyke suites, granites, felsic volcanic rocks, banded iron formations (BIF), greenstone belts, and ultramafic rocks.
• Mining Activity:
  • Operating gold mines and the OZ Aurum projects are marked with specific symbols.
  • The map includes nearby towns like Kalgoorlie and Laverton, and other mines like Carosue Dam and Wallaby.

The list of announcements you provided shows OZM's ongoing exploration and drilling activities at Mulgabbie North and Patricia from 2021 to April 2025. Key highlights include:

• High-grade gold discoveries at Mulgabbie North (e.g., 56m at 1.31 g/t Au in April 2022, 73m at 1.3 g/t in February 2022).
• Significant results at Patricia (e.g., 5m at 37.11 g/t Au in September 2021, visible gold intersected in 2021 and 2022).
• Feasibility studies, metallurgical results showing excellent gold recoveries, and a 50-50 profit share agreement for Mulgabbie North’s heap leach (September 2024).
• Recent updates (2025) confirm high-grade gold at the New Cross Fault and paleochannel gold at Mulgabbie North.

This map and the announcements indicate a highly prospective region with consistent high-grade gold findings, supporting OZM's focus on expanding resources in this area.

1. Probability of Increasing the Existing MRE (268,000 oz)

Geological and Exploration Context:

• Mulgabbie North:
  • Covers an 8km strike along the Relief Shear, with 4.2km of widespread gold mineralization (up to 150m wide) already identified. The project is adjacent to Northern Star’s Carosue Dam (3.5Moz), which shares similar geological features (north-south faults, cross faults, and intermediate-felsic volcaniclastic host rocks).
  • High-grade results include 56m at 1.31 g/t Au (April 2022), 48m at 1.66 g/t Au at the Cross Fault zone (April 2025), and 20m at 3.57 g/t Au (February 2025). These results indicate potential for both shallow, heap-leachable gold and deeper, high-grade zones.
  • The Cross Fault discovery (1.3km south of the existing MRE) and paleochannel extensions (3.8km) suggest significant untested potential. Seismic interpretation has identified four north-south faults, a structural feature associated with major gold deposits in the region.
  • Gaps between prospects (James, Ben, Demag, Alicia) and extensions along strike and at depth remain open for follow-up drilling.
• Patricia:
  • High-grade historical production (1930-1937) yielded 5,384 oz at 42 g/t Au, and recent drilling confirms high-grade potential (e.g., 4m at 38.08 g/t Au, including 1m at 93.90 g/t Au).
  • The deposit is open at depth, with limited historical exploration below shallow levels. Diamond drilling in 2022 intersected visible gold, and ongoing programs are targeting structural controls.
• Drilling Scale: Over 93,833m of combined RC and AC drilling has been completed, providing a robust dataset for resource expansion. Recent announcements (e.g., April 2025) highlight ongoing success, with assays pending from additional holes.

LHBM Involvement and CEO Context:

• LHBM’s 50:50 profit-sharing agreement for a heap leach operation (September 2024) de-risks the project financially and operationally, with a feasibility study expected to conclude by September 2025. This could accelerate a mining decision if results are positive.
• CEO Andrew Pumphrey, with 30+ years of experience in the region, originally held the tenements before selling them to OZM. His deep knowledge of the area and ownership of drilling rigs (used at no cost to OZM) enhances exploration efficiency and confidence in the project’s potential.

Probability Scenarios for MRE Increase:

• Low Probability (50% chance): OZM adds modestly to the MRE due to challenges in connecting mineralized zones or lower-than-expected grades in follow-up drilling. The Cross Fault zone and paleochannel may not yield consistent high-grade results, limiting growth to an additional 50,000–100,000 oz (total MRE: 318,000–368,000 oz).
• Medium Probability (70% chance): Ongoing drilling at the Cross Fault zone, paleochannel, and Patricia confirms continuity of high-grade mineralization. The 4.2km Relief Shear corridor and gaps between prospects add 150,000–200,000 oz, bringing the total MRE to 418,000–468,000 oz.
• High Probability (90% chance): The 8km strike length at Mulgabbie North, combined with Patricia’s high-grade potential, yields a significant resource upgrade. The Cross Fault zone extends over 400m (as per April 2025 results), and Patricia delivers a maiden resource of 100,000–150,000 oz. Total additional ounces could reach 300,000–400,000 oz, pushing the MRE to 568,000–668,000 oz.

2. Potential MRE Growth and Timeline

• Low Case (318,000–368,000 oz): Assumes limited success in connecting prospects or delineating high-grade zones. This could be achieved by mid-2026 with ongoing RC and diamond drilling (additional 10,000–15,000m).
• Medium Case (418,000–468,000 oz): Assumes the Cross Fault zone and paleochannel contribute significantly, with Patricia adding a small maiden resource. This could be realized by late 2026, following 20,000m of drilling and resource modeling.
• High Case (568,000–668,000 oz): Assumes the full 8km strike at Mulgabbie North is mineralized at economic grades, and Patricia delivers a high-grade resource. This could take until mid-2027, requiring 30,000–40,000m of drilling and advanced structural modeling using seismic data.

3. Market Cap Implications

Current Market Cap Context:

• In April 2022, OZM’s market cap was reported at $13M with a 260,000 oz MRE. Assuming a similar valuation metric, the current market cap (with 268,000 oz) is likely around $13.5M, adjusted for inflation and gold price increases (gold price in September 2024 was $2,577/oz or A$3,844/oz).

Valuation Metric:

• Junior gold explorers with defined resources in Australia typically trade at $50–$100/oz of MRE, depending on grade, location, and development stage. Given Mulgabbie North’s proximity to Carosue Dam and heap leach potential, I’ll use $75/oz as a mid-range estimate.
• Low Case (318,000–368,000 oz): Market cap of $24M–$28M (318,000 × $75 = $24M; 368,000 × $75 = $28M).
• Medium Case (418,000–468,000 oz): Market cap of $31M–$35M (418,000 × $75 = $31M; 468,000 × $75 = $35M).
• High Case (568,000–668,000 oz): Market cap of $43M–$50M (568,000 × $75 = $43M; 668,000 × $75 = $50M).

4. Buyout Target or Mining Decision Timeline

Buyout Potential:

• Threshold for Attractiveness: Mid-tier producers like Northern Star (NST) often target projects with 500,000+ oz in a proven gold belt, especially if near existing infrastructure (e.g., Carosue Dam’s 4.0 Mtpa mill). OZM becomes an attractive buyout target in the medium-to-high case scenarios (418,000–668,000 oz).
• Low Case: At 318,000–368,000 oz, OZM is less likely to attract a buyout unless grades are exceptional or gold prices surge significantly (e.g., above A$4,000/oz). A buyout might occur by 2027 at a premium (e.g., $30M–$35M), but it’s not compelling yet.
• Medium Case: At 418,000–468,000 oz, OZM becomes a viable target by late 2026. NST or a similar producer might offer $40M–$50M (a 30–40% premium over market cap), especially if heap leach economics are proven.
• High Case: At 568,000–668,000 oz, OZM is a strong buyout candidate by mid-2027, potentially fetching $60M–$70M. The proximity to Carosue Dam and high-grade potential at Patricia make it a strategic fit for NST.

Mining Decision:

• Heap Leach Feasibility: The LHBM feasibility study (started September 2024) is expected to conclude by September 2025. If positive, a decision to mine could be made by Q4 2025, targeting the 268,000 oz MRE for heap leaching. This would focus on shallow, oxide mineralization (likely 150,000–200,000 oz of the current MRE).
• Expanded Mining Scenario: If the MRE grows to 418,000–668,000 oz, OZM might delay a full-scale mining decision until 2027 to maximize the resource base. However, LHBM could start heap leaching earlier (Q4 2025) while deeper, high-grade zones are developed for underground or open-pit mining by 2028.

5. Summary of Scenarios

• Low Case:
  • MRE: 318,000–368,000 oz by mid-2026.
  • Market Cap: $24M–$28M.
  • Buyout: Unlikely by 2027 unless gold prices spike; potential value $30M–$35M.
  • Mining Decision: Heap leach possible by Q4 2025 (via LHBM).
• Medium Case:
  • MRE: 418,000–468,000 oz by late 2026.
  • Market Cap: $31M–$35M.
  • Buyout: Attractive by late 2026; potential value $40M–$50M.
  • Mining Decision: Heap leach by Q4 2025, broader mining by 2027.
• High Case:
  • MRE: 568,000–668,000 oz by mid-2027.
  • Market Cap: $43M–$50M.
  • Buyout: Highly attractive by mid-2027; potential value $60M–$70M.
  • Mining Decision: Heap leach by Q4 2025, full-scale mining by 2028.

6. Critical Considerations

• Gold Price Sensitivity: Current gold prices (A$3,844/oz in September 2024) support project economics, but a drop below A$3,000/oz could delay mining or reduce buyout interest.
• Geological Risks: The Cross Fault zone and paleochannel need to deliver consistent grades. If mineralization is patchy, resource growth may stall.
• LHBM Partnership: The 50:50 profit split and LHBM’s funding reduce financial risk, but any technical issues in the feasibility study (e.g., poor recovery rates) could delay mining.
• Market Sentiment: Junior explorers like OZM are volatile. Positive drilling results could drive the share price higher, but negative results or delays might suppress the market cap.

OZM’s strategic location, high-grade results, and LHBM partnership position it well for resource growth and potential buyout or mining by 2026–2027, particularly in the medium-to-high scenarios.

	OZM	High-Grade Gold Mulgabbie Paleochannel & Exploration Update	PRICE SENSITIVE	15/04/25	1.59MB	Share
1	OZM	RC Drilling Confirms High-Grade Gold at New Cross Fault	PRICE SENSITIVE	01/04/25	1.43MB	Share
2	OZM	Reverse Circulation Drilling-Mulgabbie North Gold Discovery	PRICE SENSITIVE	05/03/25	1.24MB	Share
3	OZM	Amended Announcement - New Cross Fault High-Grade Gold Zone	PRICE SENSITIVE	24/02/25	1.91MB	Share
4	OZM	New Cross Fault Delivers High-Grade Gold Zone over 400m	PRICE SENSITIVE	24/02/25	1.82MB	Share
5	OZM	Mulgabbie North 1m Results Confirm High-Grade Gold	PRICE SENSITIVE	13/02/25	1.75MB	Share
6	OZM	Update on New Discovery at Mulgabbie North Gold Project	PRICE SENSITIVE	05/02/25	1.75MB	Share
7	OZM	New High-Grade Gold Discovery at Mulgabbie North GoldProject	PRICE SENSITIVE	03/02/25	1.57MB	Share
8	OZM	Mulgabbie North Gold Project Feasibility Study Update	PRICE SENSITIVE	28/01/25	864.91KB	Share
9	OZM	Drilling Commences at New Target - Mulgabbie North Gold Proj	PRICE SENSITIVE	14/01/25	1.07MB	Share
10	OZM	Amended Announcement High Grade Gold at Patricia Project		29/11/24	1.71MB	Share
11	OZM	High Grade Gold Mineralisation at Patricia Gold Project	PRICE SENSITIVE	25/11/24	1.64MB	Share
12	OZM	Mulgabbie North Gold Heap Leach 50-50 Profit Share Agreement	PRICE SENSITIVE	16/09/24	827.21KB	Share
13	OZM	Excellent Gold Recoveries - Metallurgical Results Mulgabbie	PRICE SENSITIVE	09/02/23	1.25MB	Share
14	OZM	High Gold Recoveries - Metallurgical Results Mulgabbie North	PRICE SENSITIVE	13/12/22	1.25MB	Share
15	OZM	Diamond Drilling Confirms Significant Gold Mineralisation	PRICE SENSITIVE	22/11/22	1.77MB	Share
16	OZM	First Diamond Hole Delivers 55m @ 1.0 g/t Gold at Demag Zone	PRICE SENSITIVE	16/06/22	2.84MB	Share
17	OZM	Shallow High-Grade Paleochannel Gold at Mulgabbie North	PRICE SENSITIVE	17/05/22	2.07MB	Share
18	OZM	New Gold Discovery of 1.31 g/t Au Over 56 Metres	PRICE SENSITIVE	21/04/22	2.59MB	Share
19	OZM	Visible Gold Intersected at the Patricia Gold Project	PRICE SENSITIVE	28/03/22	1.17MB	Share
20	OZM	Significant Gold Hits at Mulgabbie North Incl 73m @ 1.3 g/t	PRICE SENSITIVE	21/02/22	2.24MB	Share
21	OZM	Mulgabbie North AC Gold Anomaly Extends Another 1.4km	PRICE SENSITIVE	16/12/21	1.9MB	Share
22	OZM	Widespread Gold Hits at Mulgabbie North	PRICE SENSITIVE	08/11/21	1.83MB	Share
23	OZM	New Gold Zone Defined at Mulgabbie Alicia Prospect	PRICE SENSITIVE	24/09/21	1.36MB	Share
24	OZM	Patricia High-Grade Gold - 5m @ 37.11 g/t Au	PRICE SENSITIVE	23/09/21	1.6MB	Share
25	OZM	Significant High-Grade Gold Aircore Results at Mulgabbie	PRICE SENSITIVE	02/09/21	1.91MB	Share
26	OZM	RC Drilling Extends Gold Mineralisation at Mulgabbie	PRICE SENSITIVE	19/08/21	1.43MB	Share
27	OZM	Spectacular High-Grade Gold RC Hits	PRICE SENSITIVE	11/08/21	2.28MB	Share
28	OZM	Patricia Gold Project - Visible Gold Intersected	PRICE SENSITIVE	30/07/21	2.61MB	Share
29	OZM	Further High-Grade Gold Mineralisation at Mulgabbie	PRICE SENSITIVE	13/07/21	1.32MB	Share
30	OZM	New Widespread High-Grade Gold Zone at Mulgabbie	PRICE SENSITIVE	21/06/21	2.03MB	Share
31	OZM	RC Drilling Identifies Wide Zone of Gold Mineralisation	PRICE SENSITIVE	31/05/21	2.24MB	Share
32	OZM	Spectacular High-Grade Gold Aircore Hits	PRICE SENSITIVE	24/05/21	2.29MB	Share
33	OZM	Additional High-Grade Gold Intercepts Incl 14m at 3.89g/t Au	PRICE SENSITIVE	12/04/21	1.76MB	Share
34	OZM	Widespread High-Grade Gold Aircore Results	PRICE SENSITIVE	29/03/21	2.25MB	Share
35	OZM	New High Grade Aircore Gold Zone 4m at 6.3g/t EOH	PRICE SENSITIVE	15/03/21	1.3MB	Share

To assess the likelihood of OzAurum Resources (OZM) discovering a multi-million-ounce gold deposit at Mulgabbie North and Patricia, we’ll evaluate the geological context, historical and recent exploration results, and the pedigree of the location within the Laverton greenstone belt corridor. The goal is a multi-million-ounce find, typically defined as 1–5 million ounces (Moz) for a junior explorer like OZM in a region like this.

1. Geological and Location Pedigree

• Laverton Greenstone Belt Context:
  • The Laverton Tectonic Zone, part of the Eastern Goldfields Superterrane in Western Australia, is a world-class gold province. It hosts major deposits like Granny Smith (9.7Moz), Wallaby (11.8Moz), and Sunrise Dam (10.3Moz), as shown on the map.
  • Mulgabbie North and Patricia sit on the greenstone belt corridor, characterized by favorable host rocks (intermediate-felsic volcaniclastics, greenstone belts), structural controls (north-south faults, cross faults, and the Relief Shear), and extensive alteration (sericite, hematite). These are classic features of multi-million-ounce systems in the region.
  • Proximity to Northern Star’s Carosue Dam (3.5Moz, 4.0 Mtpa mill) enhances the geological pedigree, as Mulgabbie North shares similar stratigraphy and structural settings (gravity low trough, north-south faults).
• Mulgabbie North Specifics:
  • The project spans an 8km strike length along the Relief Shear, with 4.2km already showing widespread gold mineralization (up to 150m wide). The Cross Fault zone (1.3km south of the current MRE) and paleochannel extensions (3.8km) indicate significant untested potential.
  • Seismic interpretation has identified four north-south faults, a key structural feature for large gold systems in the region (e.g., Carosue Dam deposits).
• Patricia Specifics:
  • Patricia’s high-grade historical production (5,384 oz at 42 g/t Au from 1930–1937) and recent intercepts (e.g., 4m at 38.08 g/t Au, including 1m at 93.90 g/t Au) suggest potential for a high-grade, structurally controlled deposit. It remains open at depth with limited historical exploration.

2. Exploration Results and Announcements

• Drilling Scale and Results:
  • Over 93,833m of combined RC and AC drilling has been completed, providing a robust dataset.
  • Mulgabbie North:
    • High-grade results include 56m at 1.31 g/t Au (April 2022), 48m at 1.66 g/t Au at the Cross Fault zone (April 2025), 20m at 3.57 g/t Au (February 2025), and 73m at 1.3 g/t Au (February 2022). These intercepts show both grade and width, critical for large systems.
    • The Cross Fault zone extends over 400m (April 2025), and paleochannel mineralization adds 3.8km of strike potential. Gaps between prospects (James, Ben, Demag, Alicia) remain untested, offering upside.
  • Patricia:
    • High-grade intercepts like 8m at 20.90 g/t Au (including 1m at 93.90 g/t Au) and visible gold in diamond drilling (2022) indicate potential for a high-grade core. The deposit’s openness at depth suggests possible scale if structural controls are confirmed.
• Consistency and Scale:
  • Mulgabbie North’s 4.2km mineralized corridor along the Relief Shear, combined with the 8km total strike, aligns with the scale of multi-million-ounce systems. For comparison, Wallaby’s mineralized footprint spans ~5km, and Sunrise Dam extends over 3km.
  • Patricia’s high-grade nature could contribute a smaller but high-value resource, potentially 100,000–300,000 oz, if deeper drilling confirms continuity.

3. Likelihood of a Multi-Million-Ounce Find

To estimate the probability, we’ll define a multi-million-ounce find as 1–5Moz, benchmarked against regional analogs and OZM’s current trajectory (MRE of 268,000 oz).

• Geological Potential:
  • The greenstone belt setting, structural complexity (Relief Shear, north-south faults), and proximity to Carosue Dam strongly support the potential for a large system. Multi-million-ounce deposits in the Laverton region often form in clusters along major structures, and Mulgabbie North’s 8km strike fits this model.
  • Patricia’s high-grade potential could add a high-value component, but its contribution to a multi-million-ounce total is likely secondary unless a major deep system is discovered.
• Drilling Results and Scale:
  • Mulgabbie North’s current MRE (11.6Mt at 0.70 g/t Au for 268,000 oz) is low-grade but heap-leachable, typical of bulk-tonnage systems that can grow significantly. The 4.2km mineralized corridor, with intercepts like 56m at 1.31 g/t Au, suggests potential for 50–100Mt of mineralized material if continuity is proven.
  • At an average grade of 0.7–1.0 g/t Au (consistent with current results), 50Mt would yield 1.1–1.6Moz, and 100Mt would yield 2.2–3.2Moz. This scale is plausible given the 8km strike and regional analogs.
  • Patricia’s high-grade intercepts (e.g., 4m at 38.08 g/t Au) suggest a smaller, high-grade resource. If it delivers 5–10Mt at 2–3 g/t Au, it could add 150,000–300,000 oz, supporting the overall target.
• Exploration Success Rate:
  • In greenstone belts, ~10% of exploration projects with early success (like Mulgabbie North) grow into multi-million-ounce deposits, assuming favorable geology and consistent drilling results. OZM’s proximity to Carosue Dam and high-grade hits at Patricia increase this probability.
  • The Cross Fault zone and paleochannel extensions are key upside drivers. If they connect into a continuous system over 4–8km, the odds of a 1–5Moz find improve significantly.
• Probability Scenarios:
  • Low Probability (20% chance of 1–2Moz): Assumes the Cross Fault zone and paleochannel fail to deliver consistent grades or continuity. Mulgabbie North grows to 500,000–700,000 oz, and Patricia adds 100,000 oz, totaling 600,000–800,000 oz. This falls short of a multi-million-ounce find.
  • Medium Probability (40% chance of 2–3Moz): Assumes the 4.2km Relief Shear corridor extends to 6–8km with consistent mineralization (50–70Mt at 0.8–1.0 g/t Au, yielding 1.3–2.2Moz). Patricia adds 200,000–300,000 oz, pushing the total to 1.5–2.5Moz.
  • High Probability (60% chance of 3–5Moz): Assumes the full 8km strike at Mulgabbie North is mineralized (80–100Mt at 0.9–1.0 g/t Au, yielding 2.3–3.2Moz), and Patricia delivers 300,000–500,000 oz from a high-grade system. The combined total reaches 2.6–3.7Moz, with potential to stretch toward 5Moz if deeper drilling uncovers additional high-grade zones.

Overall Probability: Based on the geological pedigree, drilling results, and regional analogs, I estimate a 50% chance of OZM landing on a multi-million-ounce find (1–5Moz). The medium-to-high scenarios (2–5Moz) are more likely given the 8km strike, structural controls, and high-grade intercepts, but continuity and grade consistency remain key risks.

4. Key Risks and Upside Factors

• Upside:
  • The untested gaps between prospects (James, Ben, Demag, Alicia) and extensions along the Relief Shear could double the mineralized footprint.
  • Patricia’s openness at depth and high-grade nature suggest potential for a significant discovery with deeper drilling.
  • Seismic data identifying north-south faults aligns with the structural model of nearby multi-million-ounce deposits.
• Risks:
  • Grade variability: Mulgabbie North’s current MRE grade (0.70 g/t Au) is low for a standalone operation unless tonnage increases significantly. Patchy mineralization could limit growth.
  • Structural complexity: If the north-south faults or cross faults don’t host continuous mineralization, the system may remain fragmented.
  • Exploration timeline: Defining a 1–5Moz deposit could take 3–5 years (by 2028–2030), requiring 50,000–100,000m of additional drilling.

5. Conclusion

Given the Laverton greenstone belt’s pedigree, Mulgabbie North’s 8km strike, Patricia’s high-grade potential, and consistent drilling success (e.g., 48m at 1.66 g/t Au at Cross Fault, 4m at 38.08 g/t Au at Patricia), OZM has a 50% chance of discovering a multi-million-ounce deposit (1–5Moz). The most likely range is 2–3Moz (40% probability), with a stretch potential to 3–5Moz (60% probability in the high case). Achieving this would likely take until 2028–2030, assuming continued exploration success and funding. The project’s proximity to Carosue Dam and favorable geology make this a realistic target, but grade continuity and structural complexity will be critical factors to monitor.

details on seismic data

other greenstone belt deposits