To assess the likelihood of OzAurum Resources (OZM) discovering a multi-million-ounce gold deposit at Mulgabbie North and Patricia, we’ll evaluate the geological context, historical and recent exploration results, and the pedigree of the location within the Laverton greenstone belt corridor. The goal is a multi-million-ounce find, typically defined as 1–5 million ounces (Moz) for a junior explorer like OZM in a region like this.
1. Geological and Location Pedigree
2. Exploration Results and Announcements
3. Likelihood of a Multi-Million-Ounce Find
To estimate the probability, we’ll define a multi-million-ounce find as 1–5Moz, benchmarked against regional analogs and OZM’s current trajectory (MRE of 268,000 oz).
Overall Probability: Based on the geological pedigree, drilling results, and regional analogs, I estimate a 50% chance of OZM landing on a multi-million-ounce find (1–5Moz). The medium-to-high scenarios (2–5Moz) are more likely given the 8km strike, structural controls, and high-grade intercepts, but continuity and grade consistency remain key risks.
4. Key Risks and Upside Factors
Upside:
The untested gaps between prospects (James, Ben, Demag, Alicia) and extensions along the Relief Shear could double the mineralized footprint.
Patricia’s openness at depth and high-grade nature suggest potential for a significant discovery with deeper drilling.
Seismic data identifying north-south faults aligns with the structural model of nearby multi-million-ounce deposits.
Risks:
Grade variability: Mulgabbie North’s current MRE grade (0.70 g/t Au) is low for a standalone operation unless tonnage increases significantly. Patchy mineralization could limit growth.
Structural complexity: If the north-south faults or cross faults don’t host continuous mineralization, the system may remain fragmented.
Exploration timeline: Defining a 1–5Moz deposit could take 3–5 years (by 2028–2030), requiring 50,000–100,000m of additional drilling.
5. Conclusion
Given the Laverton greenstone belt’s pedigree, Mulgabbie North’s 8km strike, Patricia’s high-grade potential, and consistent drilling success (e.g., 48m at 1.66 g/t Au at Cross Fault, 4m at 38.08 g/t Au at Patricia), OZM has a 50% chance of discovering a multi-million-ounce deposit (1–5Moz). The most likely range is 2–3Moz (40% probability), with a stretch potential to 3–5Moz (60% probability in the high case). Achieving this would likely take until 2028–2030, assuming continued exploration success and funding. The project’s proximity to Carosue Dam and favorable geology make this a realistic target, but grade continuity and structural complexity will be critical factors to monitor.
