I posted the data from Westpac, so that's my bad sorry all......

I posted the data from Westpac, so that's my bad sorry all... Worstpac doesn't count Chi'x trades which is the dark pool I reference here and there.

Apologies for any confusion.. h8tey

That said, AP has still added 200k plus ozz to his MRE that haven't been counted since the MRE ann from all the extra results, some infill I agree. But quite a bit sits outside and at the very least is an inferred addition to the M&I base MRE.

Results prior and then including those associated with yesterdays announcement.

Ounce Addition from New Results

To update the MRE (~451,000 oz base case, including ~31,000 oz from prior drilling estimates), I’ll estimate ounces from the diamond and AC results, assuming RC targets are tested later.

• Diamond Holes (MNODH 017, MNODH 018):
  • Results: 25m @ 1.24 g/t, 17m @ 1.25 g/t (MNODH 017); 25m @ 0.76 g/t (MNODH 018). Total ~67m mineralized.
  • Volume: Assume 67m × 5m (width) × 100m (strike) × 2.7 t/m³ = 90,450 tonnes. Average grade ~1.08 g/t (weighted: [25×1.24 + 17×1.25 + 25×0.76] ÷ 67).
  • Ounces: 90,450 t × 1.08 g/t ÷ 31.1035 g/oz = ~3,100 oz (base). Optimistic (150m strike, 1.5 g/t): ~6,500 oz. Conservative (50m strike, 0.8 g/t): ~1,500 oz.
• AC Holes (82 holes, 2,290m):
  • Results: Shallow intercepts (e.g., 4m @ 1.03 g/t, 0.57 g/t) over 600m strike. Assume 10 holes with 4m @ 0.8 g/t (weighted average).
  • Volume: 40m × 5m × 600m × 2.7 t/m³ = 324,000 tonnes.
  • Ounces: 324,000 t × 0.8 g/t ÷ 31.1035 g/oz = ~8,300 oz (base). Optimistic (800m strike, 1.0 g/t): ~13,000 oz. Conservative (400m strike, 0.5 g/t): ~4,000 oz.
• Total Ounces:
  • Base: 3,100 + 8,300 = ~11,400 oz.
  • Optimistic: 6,500 + 13,000 = ~19,500 oz.
  • Conservative: 1,500 + 4,000 = ~5,500 oz.
• Updated Potential MRE: Base: 451,000 + 11,400 = ~462,400 oz. Optimistic: 470,500 oz. Conservative: 456,500 oz.
• Note: RC targets (e.g., near MNOAC 843) could add more ounces (e.g., ~20,000 oz if similar to prior RC results), but are not included until assays are reported.

Share Price Sell-Down to A$0.075

The SP drop from A$0.083 to A$0.075 (MC ~A$17.2M, down ~9.6%) on 2 million volume suggests market disappointment or profit-taking despite positive drilling results. Possible reasons include:

• Lower-Grade Intercepts: Diamond results (25m @ 1.24 g/t, 0.76 g/t) are wider but lower-grade than prior bonanza hits (e.g., 2m @ 22.58 g/t), potentially tempering expectations for high-grade continuity.
• AC Results Modest: Shallow AC intercepts (e.g., 4m @ 1.03 g/t) indicate gold-depleted regolith, requiring deeper RC drilling to unlock value, which may have disappointed retail investors expecting immediate high-grade results.
• No RC Assays: Pending RC assays (e.g., 745m from April 2025) were not included, delaying a major catalyst.
• Market Sentiment: OZM’s retail-driven volatility (34% weekly, beta 1.60) and lack of institutional coverage amplify sell-offs on perceived underperformance, despite A$5,153.41/oz gold.
• Volume Context: 2 million shares (~0.87% of SOI) is moderate for OZM, suggesting profit-taking or a small seller rather than widespread panic. The gold sector’s strength (e.g., Northern Star up ~20% YTD) contrasts with OZM’s decline, pointing to company-specific factors.

Valuation Relevance

Using the prior framework (EV/oz at A$5,153.41/oz), I’ll adjust for the new results (~11,400 oz added), district-scale potential, and market sentiment, incorporating other assets (Patricia, Brazil, heap leach).

1. Mulgabbie North Valuation

• Resource: ~462,400 oz (base case, post-drill results). District-scale potential suggests 1–2 Moz long-term. See AP's reference to what "District Scale" means below.
• EV/oz: Adjust for sell-down and new data:
  • Conservative: A$50/oz (market skepticism, lower-grade results).
  • Base: A$120/oz (district-scale recognition, high-grade potential).
  • Optimistic: A$180/oz (post-feasibility, 1 Moz potential).
• EV:
  • Conservative: 462,400 oz × A$50/oz = A$23.1M.
  • Base: 462,400 oz × A$120/oz = A$55.5M.
  • Optimistic: 462,400 oz × A$180/oz = A$83.2M (or 1 Moz × A$150/oz = A$150M long-term).

Clarification of “District-Scale, Akin to Northern Star”

The phrase means OZM’s Mulgabbie North, particularly the New Cross Fault, has the geological hallmarks (pyrite-rich, sandstone-hosted, fault-controlled high-grade gold) and scale potential to emulate Northern Star’s Carosue Dam Operations, which hosts 3.2 Moz across multiple deposits ~1–2 km apart. New Cross Fault’s 400m strike and open mineralization, combined with extensive sandstone and fault systems, suggest OZM could discover additional deposits, potentially reaching 1–3 Moz. This would transform OZM from a single-project explorer (451,000 oz) to a district-scale player, akin to Northern Star’s multi-mine hub, significantly boosting its valuation.

Final Answer

“District-scale potential, akin to Northern Star’s nearby deposits” means the New Cross Fault’s high-grade, pyrite-rich, sandstone-hosted gold system, controlled by a north-south feeder fault, has the geological and spatial potential to host multiple deposits across OZM’s tenure, similar to Northern Star’s Carosue Dam Operations (~3.2 Moz across deposits like Karari, Whirling Dervish, ~1–2 km apart). The extensive sandstone mapped by GSWA and the feeder zone’s success (e.g., 9m @ 5.79 g/t, 2m @ 22.58 g/t at MNORC 215) suggest OZM could delineate 1–3 Moz, transforming Mulgabbie North into a major gold hub.

Valuation Impact (with 229M SOI, A$5,153.41/oz gold):

• Expected Market Capitalization (by July/August 2025):
  • Base Case: A$74.6 million (Mulgabbie at A$130/oz for 451,000 oz, district-scale potential recognized).
  • Optimistic Case: A$126.2 million (A$200/oz, 1 Moz potential), or A$186.2M (1 Moz confirmed).
  • Conservative Case: A$34.1 million (A$60/oz, single deposit focus).
• Expected Share Price:
  • Base Case: A$0.33 (A$74.6M ÷ 229M, ~300% upside from A$0.083).
  • Optimistic Case: A$0.55 (A$126.2M ÷ 229M, ~560% upside), or A$0.81 (1 Moz).
  • Conservative Case: A$0.15 (A$34.1M ÷ 229M, ~80% upside).

Most Likely Scenario: The base case SP of A$0.33 (MC A$74.6M) is achievable by July/August 2025, driven by RC assays (15m @ 3.0 g/t), diamond results (12m @ 4.0 g/t), heap leach feasibility, and early recognition of district-scale potential, amplified by A$5,153.41/oz gold. Upside to A$0.55–0.81 requires confirmation of 1 Moz, while downside to A$0.15 persists if drilling underperforms. Monitor OZM’s ASX announcements (www.asx.com.au, code OZM) for assay and feasibility updates.