Technical analysis, page-749

Slow news day/week really brother... Gut says it all kicks off again in earnest next week, hence the odd pilfer & run approach like a squirrel a back stage p*** shoot.. H8teys cheeks look like two mud luvin warthogs humpin under a blanket hehe

Whilst stuffin the old cheeks full of proverbial SP nuts I ran a quick and sometimes w***y Fib Calc just for laughs.. See what peeps reckon, tea leaves & ink blots are next.

1. Data Analysis and Inputs

Time Frame

• 6 Months: January 17, 2025, to June 26, 2025 (approximately 161 days), covering the trade history provided (up to June 25, 2025, with the current SP assumed for June 26).

Historical Price Data

• High (b): The highest closing price in the 6-month period is AUD 0.177 on February 10, 2025.
• Low (a): The lowest closing price is AUD 0.029 on January 28, 2025.
• Current SP (June 26, 2025): AUD 0.062 (as per the latest context with Ashok Parekh’s appointment).
• Price Range: AUD 0.177 – 0.029 = AUD 0.148.
• Trend Identification: The period shows an initial uptrend from January (low AUD 0.029) to February (peak AUD 0.177), followed by a downtrend to June (current AUD 0.062), reflecting volatility driven by exploration news and market sentiment.

Fibonacci Calculator Application

• The provided Fibonacci Calculator includes retracement and extension levels for both uptrend (low to high) and downtrend (high to low). I will calculate:
  • Uptrend Retracements: From the low (AUD 0.029) to the high (AUD 0.177) to assess potential support levels during the downtrend.
  • Downtrend Retracements: From the high (AUD 0.177) to the current low (AUD 0.062) to position the current SP.

2. Fibonacci Retracement Calculations

Uptrend Retracement Levels (Low to High: AUD 0.029 to AUD 0.177)

• 0% (b): AUD 0.177.
• 23.6%: 0.148 x 0.236 = 0.034928; 0.029 + 0.034928 = AUD 0.063928.
• 38.2%: 0.148 x 0.382 = 0.056536; 0.029 + 0.056536 = AUD 0.085536.
• 50%: 0.148 x 0.50 = 0.074; 0.029 + 0.074 = AUD 0.103.
• 61.8%: 0.148 x 0.618 = 0.091464; 0.029 + 0.091464 = AUD 0.120464.
• 76.4%: 0.148 x 0.764 = 0.113072; 0.029 + 0.113072 = AUD 0.142072.
• 100% (a): AUD 0.029.

Downtrend Retracement Levels (High to Current: AUD 0.177 to AUD 0.062)

• 138.2%: 0.115 x 1.382 = 0.15893; 0.177 – 0.15893 = AUD 0.01807.
• 100% (a): AUD 0.177.
• 76.4%: 0.115 x 0.764 = 0.08786; 0.177 – 0.08786 = AUD 0.08914.
• 61.8%: 0.115 x 0.618 = 0.07107; 0.177 – 0.07107 = AUD 0.10593.
• 50%: 0.115 x 0.50 = 0.0575; 0.177 – 0.0575 = AUD 0.1195.
• 38.2%: 0.115 x 0.382 = 0.04393; 0.177 – 0.04393 = AUD 0.13307.
• 23.6%: 0.115 x 0.236 = 0.02714; 0.177 – 0.02714 = AUD 0.14986.
• 0% (b): AUD 0.062.
• Note: The downtrend range is calculated as AUD 0.177 – 0.062 = AUD 0.115 (correcting the earlier assumption).

Mapping Current SP (AUD 0.062)

• Downtrend Position: The current SP of AUD 0.062 aligns precisely with the 0% retracement level, indicating it is at the recent low point of the downtrend from AUD 0.177.
• Uptrend Context: The SP at 0.062 is above the 0% uptrend level (AUD 0.029) but below the 23.6% level (AUD 0.063928), suggesting it has retraced significantly from the February peak but remains above the January low.

Extensions (Downtrend)

• 23.6%: 0.115 x 0.236 = 0.02714; 0.062 + 0.02714 = AUD 0.08914.
• 38.2%: 0.115 x 0.382 = 0.04393; 0.062 + 0.04393 = AUD 0.10593.
• 50%: 0.115 x 0.50 = 0.0575; 0.062 + 0.0575 = AUD 0.1195.
• 61.8%: 0.115 x 0.618 = 0.07107; 0.062 + 0.07107 = AUD 0.13307.
• 100%: 0.115 x 1.0 = 0.115; 0.062 + 0.115 = AUD 0.177.
• These levels indicate potential upside targets if the SP reverses from the current low.

3. Interpretation of Fibonacci Levels

Current Position (AUD 0.062)

• The SP at AUD 0.062 is at the 0% downtrend retracement level, marking the bottom of the recent decline from AUD 0.177 (February 10, 2025). In the uptrend context, it sits just below the 23.6% level (AUD 0.063928), indicating a deep retracement from the high but stability above the January low (AUD 0.029). This suggests the stock may be near a support zone, with potential for a bounce if buying interest emerges.

Support Levels

• Immediate Support: AUD 0.062 (0% downtrend) and AUD 0.029 (100% uptrend), with the latter as a psychological and historical low.
• A drop below 0.062 could test AUD 0.029, though the current level aligns with recent trading activity (e.g., June 25 low of 0.062).

Resistance Levels

• First Resistance: AUD 0.08914 (76.4% downtrend), aligning with the 23.6% uptrend level.
• Second Resistance: AUD 0.10593 (61.8% downtrend), near the 38.2% uptrend level.
• Key Resistance: AUD 0.1195 (50% downtrend), a critical zone for a trend reversal toward the fair value range (AUD 0.18–0.24, previous analysis).
• Breaking above AUD 0.1195 could target AUD 0.13307 (61.8% downtrend), approaching the prior uptrend resistance.

Extension Targets

• A reversal from AUD 0.062 could first reach AUD 0.08914 (23.6% extension), with potential to climb to AUD 0.177 (100% extension) if momentum builds, consistent with the February peak, driven by catalysts like the FS or Chairman’s influence.

4. Context from the 6-Month Trade History

Price Movement Narrative

• January–February 2025: SP rose from AUD 0.029 (January 28) to AUD 0.177 (February 10), a ~510% increase, fueled by new high-grade discoveries (e.g., Cross Fault, ASX 3 February 2025) and drilling updates (e.g., ASX 13 February 2025).
• February–April 2025: Peaked at AUD 0.13–0.17, with high volumes (e.g., 36,260,293 on February 6), reflecting hype from price-sensitive news (15 announcements since February).
• May–June 2025: Declined to AUD 0.062 by June 25, with fluctuating volumes (e.g., 2,653,268 on May 30), likely due to profit-taking, ASX volatility (Web ID: 6), and mixed sentiment (HotCopper, Web ID: 5).
• Ashok Parekh Appointment: Announced in June 2025, this positive news may not yet be priced in, suggesting a potential reversal.

Volume and Sentiment Correlation

• High volumes during the uptrend (e.g., 59,008,230 on March 3) and peak (e.g., 20,177,542 on April 2) indicate retail-driven momentum. The recent decline with lower volumes (e.g., 552,561 on June 25) suggests waning interest, but the appointment could reignite chatter.

Catalysts

• Chairman Appointment: May boost SP to AUD 0.08–0.10 within 1–3 months (previous analysis).
• FS Due September 16, 2025: A positive outcome could drive SP to AUD 0.18–0.24, aligning with resistance levels.
• Resource Upgrade: An official MRE update to ~552,000 oz by September 2025 could support this rebound.

5. Conclusion

Using the Fibonacci Calculator and 6-month trade history (high AUD 0.177, low AUD 0.029, current AUD 0.062), the SP at 6.2 cents (AUD 0.062) is at the 0% downtrend retracement level, just above the uptrend low (AUD 0.029), indicating a potential support zone. The downtrend from the February peak has retraced ~58% of the range to the current low, with resistance at AUD 0.08914 (76.4%), AUD 0.10593 (61.8%), and AUD 0.1195 (50%). A reversal could target AUD 0.177 (100% extension) if catalysts like the Chairman’s influence or FS results materialize. The analysis has high confidence due to the precise trade data, with the current position suggesting a bottoming pattern pending positive news.

Hokus Pokus Jiggery Piggery or another Eerily Prophetic Simpson Episode you tell me? gltah h8tye

rade History Download CSV
Date	Open	High	Low	Close	Volume
25/06/2025	0.063	0.065	0.062	0.062	552,561
24/06/2025	0.065	0.066	0.062	0.062	1,188,920
23/06/2025	0.073	0.074	0.065	0.065	814,031
20/06/2025	0.066	0.067	0.066	0.067	613,211
19/06/2025	0.068	0.070	0.066	0.066	866,362
18/06/2025	0.068	0.069	0.067	0.069	419,495
17/06/2025	0.071	0.071	0.067	0.067	417,329
16/06/2025	0.073	0.073	0.070	0.071	583,572
13/06/2025	0.071	0.073	0.071	0.072	316,549
12/06/2025	0.076	0.076	0.071	0.072	1,017,720
11/06/2025	0.075	0.076	0.074	0.075	92,895
10/06/2025	0.078	0.078	0.074	0.074	372,356
06/06/2025	0.079	0.080	0.076	0.076	229,791
05/06/2025	0.078	0.080	0.076	0.080	955,105
04/06/2025	0.080	0.085	0.080	0.081	1,290,882
03/06/2025	0.074	0.080	0.073	0.080	1,772,132
02/06/2025	0.078	0.078	0.073	0.073	1,845,884
30/05/2025	0.080	0.085	0.073	0.079	2,653,268
29/05/2025	0.081	0.084	0.080	0.082	178,774
28/05/2025	0.083	0.083	0.080	0.083	257,683
27/05/2025	0.088	0.088	0.081	0.082	1,231,646
26/05/2025	0.086	0.088	0.086	0.087	326,624
23/05/2025	0.085	0.087	0.082	0.086	348,393
22/05/2025	0.082	0.088	0.082	0.084	752,912
21/05/2025	0.083	0.085	0.079	0.084	968,194
20/05/2025	0.077	0.083	0.077	0.082	329,212
19/05/2025	0.079	0.079	0.077	0.077	214,715
16/05/2025	0.075	0.080	0.074	0.078	730,425
15/05/2025	0.078	0.078	0.073	0.073	940,907
14/05/2025	0.076	0.080	0.076	0.079	1,019,059
13/05/2025	0.080	0.080	0.074	0.076	1,349,080
12/05/2025	0.082	0.083	0.078	0.078	1,185,437
09/05/2025	0.081	0.084	0.078	0.082	2,715,020
08/05/2025	0.090	0.090	0.081	0.081	2,513,066
07/05/2025	0.096	0.100	0.088	0.090	6,099,352
06/05/2025	0.098	0.098	0.089	0.089	2,260,019
05/05/2025	0.097	0.097	0.093	0.094	600,400
02/05/2025	0.090	0.099	0.090	0.097	700,739
01/05/2025	0.093	0.093	0.089	0.092	1,587,999
30/04/2025	0.098	0.100	0.089	0.093	3,988,531
29/04/2025	0.110	0.110	0.099	0.099	3,327,108
28/04/2025	0.105	0.110	0.105	0.105	1,912,728
24/04/2025	0.110	0.115	0.105	0.115	2,510,977
23/04/2025	0.125	0.125	0.110	0.110	3,822,395
22/04/2025	0.120	0.125	0.115	0.120	2,106,555
17/04/2025	0.115	0.120	0.115	0.120	2,173,820
16/04/2025	0.110	0.115	0.100	0.115	3,244,445
15/04/2025	0.120	0.120	0.105	0.105	4,041,490
14/04/2025	0.120	0.125	0.112	0.115	3,323,600
11/04/2025	0.105	0.120	0.105	0.120	5,436,230
10/04/2025	0.094	0.105	0.094	0.099	4,733,261
09/04/2025	0.099	0.100	0.086	0.087	4,146,839
08/04/2025	0.092	0.100	0.087	0.099	4,495,831
07/04/2025	0.089	0.091	0.082	0.087	2,416,482
04/04/2025	0.089	0.100	0.087	0.095	5,417,815
03/04/2025	0.105	0.105	0.092	0.092	7,065,047
02/04/2025	0.096	0.130	0.096	0.105	20,177,542
01/04/2025	0.087	0.094	0.079	0.088	22,491,313
31/03/2025	0.068	0.070	0.060	0.065	1,655,357
28/03/2025	0.065	0.067	0.063	0.067	1,131,267
27/03/2025	0.060	0.065	0.060	0.064	3,112,700
26/03/2025	0.058	0.061	0.058	0.060	1,535,035
25/03/2025	0.060	0.061	0.059	0.059	164,368
24/03/2025	0.061	0.065	0.060	0.060	475,084
21/03/2025	0.056	0.062	0.056	0.062	763,486
20/03/2025	0.060	0.060	0.057	0.057	266,269
19/03/2025	0.056	0.061	0.055	0.060	2,587,406
18/03/2025	0.059	0.059	0.057	0.058	971,575
17/03/2025	0.064	0.064	0.057	0.060	4,104,459
14/03/2025	0.064	0.064	0.062	0.064	1,036,368
13/03/2025	0.066	0.068	0.065	0.065	269,262
12/03/2025	0.064	0.067	0.063	0.065	637,962
11/03/2025	0.067	0.067	0.064	0.064	1,017,768
10/03/2025	0.069	0.069	0.066	0.069	2,135,876
07/03/2025	0.065	0.071	0.065	0.066	1,194,241
06/03/2025	0.067	0.069	0.065	0.067	1,038,678
05/03/2025	0.066	0.068	0.064	0.065	1,020,404
04/03/2025	0.065	0.066	0.062	0.065	2,213,628
03/03/2025	0.066	0.070	0.061	0.065	7,007,532
28/02/2025	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.068	0
27/02/2025	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.068	0
26/02/2025	0.077	0.080	0.066	0.068	8,746,999
25/02/2025	0.080	0.084	0.075	0.076	6,780,408
24/02/2025	0.110	0.110	0.079	0.079	17,055,155
21/02/2025	0.115	0.120	0.110	0.110	808,458
20/02/2025	0.115	0.120	0.110	0.110	3,241,511
19/02/2025	0.120	0.140	0.115	0.115	6,670,064
18/02/2025	0.130	0.130	0.115	0.120	1,638,043
17/02/2025	0.125	0.135	0.125	0.125	2,426,000
14/02/2025	0.135	0.145	0.125	0.125	3,269,203
13/02/2025	0.160	0.165	0.130	0.135	6,756,852
12/02/2025	0.150	0.170	0.145	0.145	7,938,775
11/02/2025	0.160	0.172	0.145	0.150	5,011,177
10/02/2025	0.125	0.177	0.120	0.160	16,299,418
07/02/2025	0.140	0.145	0.115	0.130	9,242,755
06/02/2025	0.110	0.165	0.110	0.135	36,260,293
05/02/2025	0.068	0.110	0.068	0.105	33,143,248
04/02/2025	0.066	0.073	0.063	0.065	17,362,505
03/02/2025	0.077	0.092	0.059	0.060	59,008,230
31/01/2025	0.034	0.036	0.032	0.036	329,431
30/01/2025	0.034	0.034	0.034	0.034	10,000
29/01/2025	0.033	0.034	0.033	0.034	229,170
28/01/2025	0.029	0.031	0.029	0.031	223,517
24/01/2025	0.029	0.030	0.029	0.030	595,212
23/01/2025	0.030	0.030	0.029	0.029	50,000
22/01/2025	0.030	0.031	0.030	0.031	63,264
21/01/2025	0.031	0.031	0.030	0.031	121,005
20/01/2025	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.030	0
17/01/2025	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.030	0