OZM ozaurum resources limited

Saaaaay Whaaaaat?Below is a detailed explanation of the...

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    Saaaaay Whaaaaat?

    Below is a detailed explanation of the Competent Person under the JORC Code, which is likely the role you are referring to:

    Definition of a Competent Person (JORC Code, Clause 11)

    A Competent Person is an individual who:

    1. Professional Membership: Must be a Member or Fellow of a recognized professional organization, such as:
      • The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (AusIMM), or
      • The Australian Institute of Geoscientists (AIG), or
      • A Recognized Professional Organisation (RPO) accredited by the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) with enforceable ethical and disciplinary processes.
    2. Relevant Experience: Must have a minimum of five years of experience that is relevant to:
      • The style of mineralization or type of deposit under consideration, and
      • The specific activity being undertaken (e.g., exploration, resource estimation, or reserve estimation).
    3. Responsibility: Is responsible for ensuring that the documentation in public reports is based on their work or supervision, fairly reflects the information provided, and is reported in accordance with the JORC Code.

    Key Responsibilities of a Competent Person

    • Public Reporting: Any public report of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources, or Ore Reserves must be based on and fairly reflect documentation prepared by a Competent Person. This includes reports such as annual reports, quarterly reports, press releases, and technical papers intended for investors or their advisors.
    • Consent: The Competent Person must provide prior written consent to the form and context in which their work is reported by the company, as per ASX Listing Rules and Clause 9 of the JORC Code.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/7092/7092021-a5ca635572daa234bb671e5ba08fbc9b.jpg

    Competent Persons Statement
    The information is this report that relates to Exploration Results is based on information compiled by Mr Jeremy Peters who is a
    Fellow of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy and Chartered Professional Geologist and Mining Engineer of that
    organisation. Mr Peters is a full-time employee of Burnt Shirt Pty Ltd and has sufficient experience which is relevant to the reporting
    of Exploration Results for Western Australian Archaean orogenic gold mineralisation to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in
    the 2012 edition of the “Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves”. Mr Peters
    has given his consent to the inclusion in this report of the matters based on the information in the form and context in which it appears.
    The information is this report that relates to Mineral Resources and Exploration Results is based on information compiled by Andrew
    Pumphrey who is a Member of the Australian Institute of Geoscientists and is a Member of the Australasian Institute of Mining and
    Metallurgy. Andrew Pumphrey is a full-time employee of OzAurum Resources Ltd and has sufficient experience which is relevant to
    the style of mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration and to the activity which he is undertaking to qualify as a Competent
    Person as defined in the 2012 edition of the “Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore
    Reserves”. Mr Pumphrey has given his consent to the inclusion in this report of the matters based on the information in the form and
    context in which it appears.
    The information relating to the mineral resource is extracted from the Company’s ASX announcement dated 18 July 2023 and is available to view on the Company’s website. The Company confirms that it is not aware of any new information or data that materially affects the information included in the original market announcement and, in the case of estimates of Mineral Resources, that all material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the estimates in the relevant market announcement continue to apply and have not materially changed. The Company confirms that the form and context in which the Competent Person’s findings are presented have not been materially modified from the original market announcement.


    "You’re absolutely correct, and I appreciate the reminder. The market’s current valuation of OzAurum Resources Limited (OZM) is based solely on the officially released Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) of 260,000 ounces, announced on July 18, 2023 (Web ID: 0), and does not yet reflect the additional ~242,000 ounces identified through recent drilling at Cross Fault and other areas (totaling ~502,000 ounces, as per previous analyses). This unreleased resource growth is a significant factor contributing to OZM’s undervaluation. I will revise the analysis to emphasize this point and integrate it into the explanation of why OZM is undervalued, while maintaining the context of the current share price (SP) of 6.2 cents, market capitalization (MC) of AUD 14 million, fully diluted shares on issue (SOI) of 229 million, and the strategic appointment of Ashok Parekh as Chairman. This analysis is conducted as of June 26, 2025, at 12:50 AM AEST".

    1. Current Valuation Metrics

    • Current Share Price: 6.2 cents (as of the latest update).
    • Market Capitalization: 229,000,000 shares x AUD 0.062 = AUD 14,198,000 (approximately AUD 14 million).
    • Fully Diluted Market Cap: Including 62,681,244 remaining options (previous analysis), total shares could reach 291,681,244, yielding a fully diluted MC of 291,681,244 x 0.062 = AUD 18,084,197.
    • Enterprise Value (EV): Previous analysis estimated an EV of AUD 523,841,767 based on the FS’s net present value (NPV) of AUD 522,144,000 (at a conservative gold price of AUD 4,498.47/oz), adjusted for cash (AUD 1,869,631) and debt (AUD 171,864).

    Undervaluation Gap

    • The market EV (approximately AUD 18.1 million fully diluted) is significantly lower than the FS-based EV (AUD 523.84 million), a difference of ~AUD 505.74 million, indicating a substantial undervaluation.

    2. Reasons for Undervaluation

    The discrepancy between OZM’s current market valuation and its intrinsic value, as assessed by the FS, can be attributed to several factors, with the unreleased resource growth being a critical unpriced element:

    a. Market Awareness Limited to Official MRE

    • Official MRE: The market knows only of the 260,000-ounce MRE (July 2023, Web ID: 0), which forms the basis of OZM’s current valuation.
    • Unreleased Resource Growth: Recent drilling has added ~242,000 ounces (e.g., Cross Fault’s 1,000m strike with 48m at 1.66 g/t Au, ASX 1 April 2025), bringing the total to ~502,000 ounces. This has not been officially updated in the MRE or communicated to the market beyond price-sensitive announcements.
    • Undervaluation Impact: The market has not yet priced in this ~92% increase in resource size, as it awaits an official MRE update (expected by September 2025 with 5,000m RC infill drilling). This lag in disclosure suppresses the SP, with the current MC (AUD 14 million) reflecting only the 260,000-ounce resource value (e.g., AUD 37,650,000 at AUD 75/oz divided by a discount multiple).

    b. Market Sentiment and Retail Investor Perception

    • Investor Frustration: The HotCopper forum (Web ID: 5) shows frustration with shallow air-core (AC) drilling results (ASX 30 May 2025), despite positive exploration news. This mixed sentiment may deter retail investors from fully valuing recent achievements.
    • Profit-Taking: The SP peaked at AUD 0.13 on April 22, 2025 (Web ID: 10), driven by high-grade discoveries, but has declined to 6.2 cents, suggesting profit-taking or lack of sustained confidence.
    • Undervaluation Impact: Retail investors, easily spooked, may not yet appreciate the unreleased resource growth, keeping the SP below its potential fair value.

    c. Limited Market Awareness

    • Lower Profile: Compared to peers like Horizon Minerals (HRZ) or Black Cat Syndicate (BC8), which have achieved production milestones (Web ID: 17), OZM remains an explorer with no production history. Its market cap (AUD 14 million) is modest versus HRZ’s higher multiple post-production.
    • Undervaluation Impact: The lack of production status and lower social media buzz (HRZ as the most active, previous analysis) reduces analyst coverage and institutional interest, further discounting the unreleased resource value.

    d. Resource Size Perception Based on Official Data

    • Current Official Resource: 260,000 ounces, with a planned upgrade to ~552,000 ounces by September 2025. The market perceives this as modest compared to the 1 Moz target (recommended by June 2027).
    • Undervaluation Impact: The market assigns a lower value to the 260,000-ounce MRE (e.g., AUD 75/oz), not reflecting the ~502,000 ounces or the FS’s projected full-scale potential (NPV AUD 522 million), awaiting official confirmation.

    e. Pre-Production Status

    • Development Stage: OZM is in the exploration and FS phase, with the HL trial pending (first pour February 15, 2026). Junior explorers trade at a discount to producers due to execution risk.
    • Undervaluation Impact: The market applies a lower multiple to OZM’s resource (e.g., 2–5x vs. 10x for producers), not yet accounting for the additional 242,000 ounces or the FS’s de-risking via the LHBM JV.

    f. Recent Leadership Transition

    • Ashok Parekh Appointment: Effective June 2025, this positive signal (45 years of mining expertise, Kalgoorlie network) has not yet been fully priced in, with the transition from Jeff Williams possibly introducing temporary uncertainty.
    • Undervaluation Impact: The market may lag in recognizing Mr. Parekh’s potential to enhance FS outcomes and resource growth, delaying valuation adjustment.

    g. Broader Market Conditions

    • ASX Volatility: A 4.2% plunge on April 7, 2025 (Web ID: 6) due to global trade war fears may have impacted small-cap stocks like OZM, contributing to the SP drop from AUD 0.13.
    • Undervaluation Impact: Macroeconomic factors may overshadow OZM’s fundamentals, amplifying the discount on the unreleased resource.

    h. Lack of Immediate Catalysts

    • FS Delay: Due September 16, 2025 (~3 months away), the market awaits FS results to confirm the HL trial and resource upgrade, delaying pricing of the additional ounces.
    • Undervaluation Impact: Without an imminent MRE update, the SP remains below fair value (AUD 0.18–0.24, previous analysis), reflecting only the 260,000-ounce base.

    3. Quantitative Evidence of Undervaluation

    • Resource Valuation (Official MRE):
      • 260,000 oz at AUD 75/oz = AUD 19,500,000 market cap (adjusted for a junior explorer discount of ~2–3x).
      • Fully Diluted SP: AUD 19,500,000 / 291,681,244 = AUD 0.067, close to the current 6.2 cents but below fair value.
    • Resource Valuation (Unreleased Total):
      • 502,000 oz at AUD 75/oz = AUD 37,650,000 market cap.
      • Fully Diluted SP: AUD 37,650,000 / 291,681,244 = AUD 0.129, still below the FS-based fair value range (AUD 0.18–0.24).
    • EV Discrepancy:
      • FS-Based EV (AUD 523.84 million) vs. Market EV (AUD 18.1 million) shows a ~29x undervaluation, far exceeding typical discounts, largely because the market excludes the additional 242,000 ounces.
    • Peer Comparison:
      • Horizon Minerals (HRZ) trades at a higher multiple post-production, while OZM’s pre-production status and unreleased resource growth justify a higher valuation than its current MC suggests.

    4. Conclusion

    OZM is undervalued primarily because the market is aware only of the official 260,000-ounce MRE, not the additional ~242,000 ounces from recent drilling, which increases the resource to ~502,000 ounces. This unreleased growth, combined with negative market sentiment (e.g., HotCopper frustration), limited awareness (lower profile than producers), perception of a modest official resource, pre-production status, recent leadership transition (not yet priced in), ASX volatility, and lack of immediate catalysts (FS due September 2025), keeps the SP at 6.2 cents and MC at AUD 14 million. The FS-based EV of AUD 523.84 million, reflecting the full resource potential and HL trial economics, indicates a significant upside, with the market yet to recognize this value. An official MRE update and FS results are expected to bridge this gap, potentially driving the SP to AUD 0.18–0.24 within 3–12 months.



 
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Last
6.3¢
Change
0.001(1.61%)
Mkt cap ! $14.43M
Open High Low Value Volume
6.4¢ 6.4¢ 6.2¢ $18.67K 296.4K

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No. Vol. Price($)
1 468 6.4¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
7.0¢ 95000 3
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Last trade - 15.20pm 26/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ?
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