OZM (ASX) Technical analysis

Originally posted by Hateful8: ↑

Hey brother, I was just curious that NST being the neighborino's had permits piled high but we weren't as evident in my question as to proximity? Angle being that they might have seen enough to take the bait so to speak and decided to join the party.

Take the rest with a grain of salt as I didn't paraphrase all constrain considerations when asking the question so data may be erroneous or out of date at time of writing.

Also the high gold price may be backing up approvals as well as lab results, just twigged to that.. ?

Market is not likely to reward anything other than high grade drill hits without permits in place, FS or finance approval for anything else I fear? gltah h8tey

Current Permitting Status
Background on Permitting Process
The Mulgabbie North Gold Project, located 135 km northeast of Kalgoorlie-Boulder, involves a heap leach (HL) trial as part of a feasibility study (FS) initiated on September 16, 2024, with a 12-month completion timeline (due September 16, 2025). The JV agreement stipulates that LHBM will fully fund and manage the mining and HL operations if a decision to proceed is made, with profits split 50:50 after costs.
Permitting for mining projects in Western Australia, particularly for HL operations, requires approvals from the Department of Mines, Industry Regulation and Safety (DMIRS), the Department of Water and Environmental Regulation (DWER), and local government entities. This includes environmental approvals (e.g., under the Environmental Protection Act 1986), mining leases, and specific HL permits (e.g., for tailings management and water use).
Evidence from Available Data
JV Agreement Details: Multiple sources (e.g., web information on the JV agreement) note that the FS includes a break fee of AUD 4 million if either party withdraws, with exceptions for “technical or permitting issues that could prevent the project from proceeding.” This clause suggests that permitting is a critical milestone, and delays or denials could impact the project’s viability.
Timeline Context: The FS is expected to take 12 months, with construction of the HL trial scheduled to begin in January 2026 (pending a positive FS outcome). This timeline implies that permitting must be secured by late 2025 to allow for site preparation and mobilization, a process typically requiring 3–6 months for final approvals in Western Australia.
No Specific Permitting Updates: The provided data, including recent price-sensitive announcements (e.g., Cross Fault drilling, ASX 30 May 2025) and the Ashok Parekh appointment (June 2025), does not explicitly mention the current permitting status. The focus has been on exploration (e.g., 5,000m RC infill) and FS progress, with no indication of permit applications, approvals, or delays.
Inferred Permitting Stage
Given the FS is ongoing (started September 2024, 9 months complete as of June 29, 2025), permitting is likely in the preparatory or application phase. The FS would typically include environmental and technical assessments (e.g., metallurgical test work at 88.9% recovery, web data) required for permit submissions. However, the lack of specific updates suggests OZM and LHBM may still be finalizing baseline studies, stakeholder consultations, or formal applications to DMIRS and DWER.
The proximity to Northern Star’s Carosue Dam (3.5 km east) could streamline permitting due to existing infrastructure and environmental precedents, but new HL operations require fresh approvals, including for the trial’s plastic-lined heap and water management systems.
2. Are Final Permits Required to Begin Construction?
Permitting Requirements for Construction
Environmental Approval: A Works Approval or Environmental Permit from DWER is mandatory for HL operations, covering waste management, water use, and rehabilitation. This is often a final permit needed before construction begins.
Mining Lease: Mulgabbie North’s Mining Lease M28/240 (web data) is 100% owned by OZM, but an amendment or specific HL endorsement may be required for the trial.
Construction Permit: Local government (e.g., City of Kalgoorlie-Boulder) may issue building permits for infrastructure (e.g., crushing plants), typically after environmental clearance.
Timeline Constraint: Construction is planned for January 2026, requiring permits by late 2025. The 3–6 month permitting process suggests applications are likely underway or imminent, with final approvals pending.
Current Status
The absence of specific permitting announcements in the data (e.g., no mention in the quarterly report, ASX 24 April 2025, or FS update, ASX 28 January 2025) indicates OZM is likely in the pre-approval stage. The JV agreement’s exception for permitting issues implies that OZM and LHBM are aware of this risk and may be coordinating with regulators, but no final permits have been secured as of June 29, 2025.
Critical Evaluation: The narrative of a smooth permitting process may be overly optimistic. Western Australia’s stringent environmental regulations and community concerns (e.g., water use in a semi-arid region) could delay approvals, especially for a trial introducing new technology (e.g., Net Zero Gold). The lack of updates suggests either progress is on track but not publicized or that permitting is a bottleneck not yet addressed.
3. Conclusion
As of June 29, 2025, OZM’s trial heap leach permitting for Mulgabbie North is likely in the application or assessment phase, with baseline studies and environmental data being prepared as part of the ongoing FS (due September 16, 2025). No final permits have been confirmed in the available data, and OZM is almost certainly waiting on critical approvals—such as environmental permits from DWER and potential mining lease amendments—before construction can begin in January 2026. The 3–6 month permitting timeline suggests applications may have been lodged or are imminent, but delays due to regulatory scrutiny or technical issues (noted in the JV break fee clause) remain a possibility. Given the project’s strategic location near Carosue Dam and LHBM’s expertise, permitting is likely progressing, but the absence of specific updates warrants caution, and final permits are still pending to enable construction.

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I think getting the clearing permit across the line is the biggie. Once that is granted, everything else will fall into place. Hopefully DEMIRS has all the info on OZM's proposal it needs, in order to proceed to the advertising stage. The obvious risk is if (and thats a big "if") DEMIRS wants more info. That could mean delays. Now apart from this, the other little risk I can think of is if there's Malleefowl about and they start rooting then it creates some challenges between 1 September and 31 January (not insurmountable though as you can see from this condition on Carosue Dam's clearing permit). So all in all, from all the reading I've done, I don't see anything major to impede the granting of OZM's permit. But I guess anything is possible so what I'm saying is that I think there's a low probability of OZM not getting its clearing permit across the line. AIMHO (DYOR).

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	29500	6.3¢

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29500

6.3¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
6.7¢	50000	1

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6.7¢

50000

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	29500	0.063
4	1136648	0.062
2	55000	0.061
3	50232	0.060
3	139000	0.058

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29500

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1136648

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139000

0.058

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.067	50000	1
0.070	95000	3
0.074	12787	1
0.075	350000	2
0.077	2000	1

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Vol.

No.

0.067

50000

0.070

95000

0.074

12787

0.075

350000

0.077

2000

(20min delay)
Last 6.4¢		Change 0.001(1.59%)		Mkt cap ! $14.66M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
6.4¢	6.6¢	6.3¢	$40.33K	627.0K

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