Uh, no, the probability of success (~10-15%) and the value of...

Uh, no, the probability of success (~10-15%) and the value of the prospect (~260MMboe, let's call it roughly a dollar per share) *had* been factored into the SP - about 10-15cents on a company that is worth only ~10-15cps without it. Hence the ~25cps highs, and the bailing from there to here as people realise that a 10-15% chance is exactly that; however, probabilistically, ADX is currently undervalued.

So no, "most of any potential find" is not factored in to what is mathematically in fact an underpriced SP.

Note that this dependent on my estimate of POS and prospect value to ADX; see the multitude of Strachan etc. reports, or the below for why I believe they are about right.

http://www.megafileupload.com/en/file/244161/ADXEnergy230610outlook--1--pdf.html

So yeah, a doubling on HC shows is a fair estimate, IMO.

Bam, lawyered.