one person may think looking at PE is fundamental analysis
some think an intimate knowledge of how the company does busines is adequate
charlie munger looks at not only economics but areas like psychology, sociology, philosophy etc
I like to think I do fundamental analysis
trouble is not many people actually saw this unravelling of the credit system
For example I didn't know that centro was the canary in the coal mine
now gpt is doing a capital riasing
afg, mqg
and now commodities and massive changes in exchange rates
it was all beyond me
but if you knew it was coming you would have been able to do something about it
some say they knew it was coming but for the most part they are liars
most just got lucky. maybe they had no money to start with so they had nothing to invest and nothing to get into trouble with
they then carry on about being in cash (the small amount they have.)
one thing I like about allan Kohler and people like Marcus Padley is that they do their best to try and understand what's going on and are man enough to say they don't know when they don't know.
I really like that.
my point however is this. fundamental research works but only if you know what is going on
Knowing what is going in total is easier said than done if not near impossible
gerard minack and blokes like steve keen, Marc Faber and jim rogers seemed to have some insight into what was going on.
