Do you have any idea how long in time the path is from Lynas to a car in production. I have read about 6 months. Look at th problem with the iCS for Cars in March 2020 many car manufactures including GM Ford Toyota and of course Tesla realized they where accumulating a large surplus of the assemblies that use these chips. They cancelled orders for assemblies. Chip makers took down lines to make other chips. About july they started placing small orders and realized about a month or two latter they could not get them. about October and November they started a major push. The chips are now weeks away but finished assemblies are much further than that. Google something like "A Year of Poor Planning Led to Carmakers’ Massive Chip Shortage." there are many articles about what caused this here is what I think is one of best with many links to other parts of problem. https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/a-year-of-poor-planning-led-to-carmakers-massive-chip-shortage. The REO to final assembly is equally long. REO is made into Metal Then metal is made into magnetic material. then custom shaped magnets are made. These are assembled into Rotor assemblies. All with inventory, often shipping and testing at every stage. Then Rotor assembly has to be become part of motor. Then part of a car be it a drive motor or power window motor. Think how long this whole problem will take to unwrap. This is a primary reason I believe Current NDPR prices are speculation. The demand is not there. Want further proof? Why have La and CE gone down. Why has NdPr gone from 30% of Lynas shipments to 47 % in just 6 months. While sales of most things that use it are down. Only time will tell if I am correct or wrong you make your own decision.
As less and less La and CE are shipped the COP/ KG for NdPr will go up dramatically. Total cost will not change much just smaller base to spread it over.
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