Technical, page-1424

Historical Analysis

Most simply looking at history suggests that we are already some way into the bear market. An analysis by First Trust of bear markets since 1942 finds that the average decline in a bear market is -32%, which would correspond to the S&P&500 falling to around 3,300 or about another -12% from current levels, and the bear market lasting about a year. That would suggest the bear market would end around December 2022. Of course, keeping in mind that we’re already some way into a bear market.

Also, if you look at a different index, such as the tech-heavy Nasdaq, then the bear market started earlier and has fallen further, so the bear market may be closer to being over.

On the other hand, there were some nasty bear markets before the second world war, so including those in the analysis adds about a another 6 months to the average bear market and increases the average decline.
Either way if history is any guide, we could be around half way into a bear market in terms of timing, and over half way in terms of stock declines. There’s also about a 1 in 4 chance, that we’ve seen the worst of a bear market already, based on history as several bear markets never saw much worse than a 20% decline in stocks.