i have asked you this multiple times. Why are we oversold? What measure are you using. If it because we are at $9.19 after being at 11.59 in May then you have to defend the 11.59 Price as correct. If you use FCF as a ruler than I will agree Lynas is about 30~ 40% oversold. If you use book value 1.2 B VS market cap 8.3B Then it is overpriced by about 6.7X. There are many in between these two they are the extremes. To me if you are going to say we are oversold you have to declare the scale and provide some data.
Next you post charts of RV growth and I have no problem with that the market will grow dramatically. Price is Supply and demand and Charts of Demand without research into Supply can not give a complete story. There is also another factor that can lead to crazy swings in prices. That is inventory build up and sell off. So unless you can prove that NdPr was fairly priced at US 130 a KG NV talking about Demand is only half the story.
Here are two Articles from SMM to day. I read them and I THINK prices are falling and will continue to do so. Unlike you they talk about all 3 components of price, Supply, Inventory changes and Demand.
https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101923478/how-will-constantly-rising-supply-affect-the-already-falling-rare-earth-prices
https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101913532/output-of-pr-nd-oxide-and-pr-nd-metal-dropped-in-july-amid-the-weak-demand
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Last
$7.72 |
Change
-0.050(0.64%) |
Mkt cap ! $7.173B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$7.75 | $7.75 | $7.59 | $16.17M | 2.104M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 2200 | $7.71 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$7.75 | 5834 | 5 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 2200 | 7.710 |
1 | 7544 | 7.690 |
1 | 7544 | 7.680 |
2 | 28722 | 7.670 |
2 | 14421 | 7.660 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
7.750 | 5834 | 5 |
7.760 | 13410 | 7 |
7.770 | 12269 | 6 |
7.780 | 13658 | 2 |
7.800 | 2194 | 4 |
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