Technical, page-1738

I do agree a PE for Lynas of 12 is low in a normal economy I would expect the high teens.
We are headed into a recession and if that happens 12 is actually fairly good. Most PEs will be under 10.

Next The SAR due to low REE prices and water problems will be much worse than 1/2 of the AR 2022. . Now Last year The SAR was poor as well compared to the 2022 AR. So '22 SAR will be sifted off 2023 AR shifted on and PE will not change all that much. Many people use 4 X times latest results. in US profits and much more details are reported every Q. So many on the SAR will not look at PE that includes H2 2022 and H1 2023. but simply multiply profit from the 2023 SAR by two. this will show a PE well over 20 with a stock price of 8.00. by my calculations. for Q1 I used a NdPr price of about 110 USD no VAT. Production of 1.2KT of NDPR. I also used the old price of La and Ce . Next time I do it I will include the recent drop for La and Ce not a big change. Now for Q2 I assumed Production set a new lifetime high of 1.7 KT of NdPr but the NdPr price was down to 85 USD. Rember there is a 90 ~ 120 day delay between street price and revenue.

So I agree with you by your TA Chart it sure looks Oversold. Is that the right way to figure out what the price might be Oct 22 or Feb 2023 or August of 2023. Evey one on thit board claims to be a long term holder should not price estimated 6 or 12 months out be more important?

Yes it can but what is the current probability of each direction My guess is the odds favor a price under 7 a few days after the SAR. very possible much sooner.

Whose Consensus estimate. REE prices are dropping Just a few days ago Lynas announced a very low out put for Q1 that might extend to Q2 If you are going to talk estimates, you have to say who and what they are looking at. i have seen many estimates posted on this board that use the AR data which ends on June 30. Look at what has happened since then. Not worth the paper they are written on. In volatile times like these you have to do your own and update them weekly as new data comes in. First pass may be inaccurate but if as you update you see both profits and revenue declining or going up. That will tell you plenty.

Its great for you to think "all of which will pass soon enough" but why in fact AL and the board deciding to sell stock now to raise money says they think current price is good.

Key words are "is not expected" If you invest in stocks for a long time you will learn this is Corp speak for we do not want to say it is a problem so we will say this so we cannot be prosecuted for giving out bad info to stock holders if it turns out not to be true.