Thank you. talk to you a week after Q4, then AR. Then Q1. The data I use is available to all just like yours. Few, like you, chose to do the work. First as I said these lines are from looking at Lynas's Expenses and past cash flow. I did not include any numbers from AL talking about increased expenses after SAR. Though the lower profits in SAR with much larger revenue does show a trend start.
As I said when I first posted them, they are my opinion based on research. No one, including you, has shown why they should be changed but any reasonable argument and I will be glad to do it. From the bottom. With these explanations maybe you can suggest changes with data.
Break even from looking at expenses per kilogram from multiple ARs and SARs This is the point earnings will be near Zero. Rember they have to average this for entire period and there is a book to bill delay. CAP ex is not used in this calculation.
Positive cash flow. Including CapX this is where Lynas accumulates cash, not including one time items. Note Lynas in Q3 would have had negative cash flow if not for the one time purchase of shares by JARE.Note Q2 2023 - 80 M and Q3 3023 (1113-934 - 200= -29M) without JARE both had negative cash flow.
Good Profits. This is the point where Lynas has reasonable profits a Pe of 10~20 would be a good indication of this zone. i expect from UBS arguments and tracking performance that SAR for 2024 the PE will be over 40 if stock is about AU$7.00. Which it will not be. Stock will drop lowering PE.
You may say it is unfair to exclude one time items. Looking for long-term trends, which is what long-term holders should be doing, you need to exclude them.
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