Hi Weehawken,
apologies for late reply - I've been travelling.
Time will tell re Japanese car industry, but my opinion (shared by many) is that the writing is on the wall. Of course, the Japanese government will step in and bail the companies out, but knowing Japanese mentality very well I do not see them (main car manufacturers) surviving into the next decade. Currently there are NO clear plans, even from Toyota (just blah blah blah), yet in just a handful of years no form of ICE cars will be sold in China and Europe..
With respect to LYC and JARE - this is to protect Japanese mag industry, as Japan hasn't forgotten what happened a decade+ ago.. (and the 'support' we get comes cheap for them - they just forget some interest). The 'mag industry' of course includes NdFeB used in hybrid cars made in Japan. By my accounts, close to 40-50% of Japanese NdFeB goes into cars (hybrid + traditional ICE).
The latest paragraph highlights my secret worry for LYC. We have put all our eggs in one basket - what will happen should the demise of Japanese car industry actually happen?
One saving grace is that a majority of our NdPr flows to electrical appliance manufacturing in Philippines (via Shin-Etsu), so we have actually not been exposed much to the current shift to electric cars (partially because Japan just isn't making them (BEVs), and partially due to where our products flow).
There clearly is demand as it is, but imagine if Japan was to really shift their car manufacturing to electrics, which would alone potentially double the NdPr demand. As an option, instead of hoping we could be proactive: either start a joint venture with a mag producer/ car manufacturer or go downstream alone. Mt Weld also harbours >$50b in other resource, which I really hope we will start tapping into (indications are that they will).
LYC has huge potential, just need to start kicking some of those stars into alignment.
Sorry for long reply.. hopefully coherent, I'm jet lagged. Now on to holiday mode (in Europe)..
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