LYC lynas rare earths limited

So easy to say. "still very cheap for this company." Do you have...

  1. 8,499 Posts.
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    So easy to say. "still very cheap for this company." Do you have any backup for this statement? Every one said when WESS made offer years ago they would raise it or a white knight would show up and raise the offer by 2 ~5 X neither happened. In fact offer died and a month later when stock was down 25% from offer price many wanted the offer back. I will give just one example of why it will not happen. You can use any thing you want to prove your point but some back up would be nice.
    Book value is currently 2,163M See Pg. 58 at bottom, in the AR.
    A buy out of 6.00 would mean a price of 6.00 X 935M shares =$ 5,610M. What happens to this difference? It has to go on the buying companies books as "Good Will" It is an asset. Most stock holders and companies do not like lots of good will. A couple of problems with it.
    1. The company cannot use it when trying to borrow money since it is not tangible.
    2. It is amortized at a faster rate than other large assets lowering future profits. Large Assets are depreciated but the impact to bottom line is the same. So at 6.00 the Good will is 2.6B at $9.00 it is 6.3 B
    How many companies want this on their books? not many and do not forget it will have a large effect on their ability to borrow money. They will need cash on hand to close deal.

    I will suggest you use one of the following to make your point, Feel free to use anything you want but make sure it is something that a buying company would use. Here are some suggestions use them if you want.
    Current value or future value, 3 years max more likely 2, of any of the following
    1. Revenue. This is currently declining and will decline substantially with Q2 report.
    2. Income. This also is declining and may go red in AR.
    3. FCF Even with stock sales and Loan forgiveness this declined 100M in Q1 and will continue to decline.

    Accountants make the decisions on buying a company. If loans are needed, then banks accountants they can be very tight with their money if they do not see the immediate ability of the deal to make payments on the loan. If the buying company had an A Credit rating then the loan rate would be about 6.2% if the company used $2B of their own cash then interest would be 2.48M a year. that means no return at all on their own money. Most companies buy companies to expand EPS fairly quickly.

    You can Dream all you want about fantastic buyouts. JMO they seldom do. The press always make a big deal on the great buy outs they never cover the other 95% that are not nearly as great. Google M&A and tell us what you find.
 
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(20min delay)
Last
$10.74
Change
-0.070(0.65%)
Mkt cap ! $10.04B
Open High Low Value Volume
$10.76 $10.88 $10.71 $32.09M 2.974M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
3 10604 $10.72
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
$10.76 2500 1
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Last trade - 16.14pm 30/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ?
LYC (ASX) Chart
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