OK believe what you want. The company is in great shape, I have never questioned that. The stock is over priced because of 900M shares caused by the debt that was incurred. Can you find a single fundamental that supports stock price and explain it?So far you have not.
Saying I have answered my own question is meaningless because I have given fundamentals that show the stock is over priced. You on the other hand have not given one fundamental I think you do not even know what fundamentals are. Or even one that shows what great shape company is in. You like most of the dreamers on this board fail to see the difference between, the company being in great shape and the stock being properly priced. Amazon when it fell from over USD 100+ to less than $10 during dot com was always well run and doing fine. The stock fell because it was over priced. Q2 depends on Lynas getting to 100% soon, after October going to 100% will be too late to help Q2. There are delays from production start to revenue. Much of last year was helped by selling most of the NdPr in inventory. So look at Q4 they shipped just 20T short of 1000 ton more product than they made. I have good reason to believe it was all NdPr. I also believe at this point there is little surplus inventory of NdPr.Ask and I will defend these positions. So what happens if revenue is down 50 to 70 Million in Q1? . If the plant does not return to 100 % it is down by same amount Q2? Even if Lynas goes to 100% next week. Q2 is unlikely to match Q4 revenue they have been producing about 1370 Tons NdPr a Q. 1/4 of 7200 = 1800 So that would be an increase of 430 T in NDPR, which is half of what they shipped from Inventory in Q4.
So answer my question which fundamentals support current stock price? If you do you might see the light. I will give you one more that shows Price is high. EPS is AUD 0.18 With a SP AUD 7.50 that means the company earned 2.4% on your money in 2021. What events do you expect to be complete in the next 3 years that will substantially improve earning so you could have a 7% to 10% return. Log term the only thing that increase book value is earnings. Which brings up another fundamental that shows stock price is high.Book value!
FRMG.AXprice 15.00, BV/S 5.BHP price 54.00, book / share 20.23. RIO68.00book/ share32.74.Lynasprice 7.50, Book /share 1.20.
Just for record AMZN12/ 23 /1999113.0010/1/20015.61It took less than a year to fall to 20.00 from 113.00When I started shorting AMZN and said I was, I heard all the stuff I hear on this board why Dots com was a new paradine and old metrics did not apply.
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