Lynas has never achieved NEXT rates for a full Q. Even before Covid they achieved it for only a single month in two different Qs and months were not back to back. So I guess all I can say is until they show a Q with at least 1700 KT, I would be very cautions about using 7200KTG a year for NdPr production.
NdPr, for 2018 was Q1 1442KT, Q2 1222, Q3 1332, Q4 1447. Total 5443 KT. It did not even meet pre NEXT rate. 1/4 of pre next 6000 is 1500 of Next 7200 is 1800.
In 2019 numbers for FY 2019. Q1 1579, Q2 1223, Q3 1591 Q4 1501. total. 5894KT again below pre NEXT rate. I will post 2020 but that had covid so low numbers Q1 1242 KT, Q2 1270KT, Q3 1369KT Q4 775 KT
Not one Q after NEXT did they hit even 1600KT never mind 1800KT. So Mikaj is welcome to use 7200KT if he wants. Like most things he does it may prove high. Until I see at least one Q with at least 1650KT I think PRE NEXT, 6000 KT is a much better number than 7200KT for a yearly total. Show me then I will believe.
Q1FY 2022 was only 1255KT, again lots of problems. We are not off to a good start. JMO but FY 22 will come in below 5500KT unless things turn around real fast, I hope they do but I want to see a press release in righting or a Q report showing it before I believe. The year is almost half over, still no good news.
LYC Price at posting:
$8.91 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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