technicals brrrreakout, page-12

I agree with the sentiment of most posters here - the last two days trading, on top of the large volumes last week, looks particularly bullish.

It is hard to pin down the precise driver. From here on in the rail issue cannot be separated from Chinese intentions. ie. the third party rail scenario or stand alone.

Wah Nam buying at $4 indicates to me that the Chinese want Marillana developed, and that should a third party agreement fail to be reached, we will see stand alone rail developed with an FRS/NWIOA tie up with Chinese backing (most likely a consortium including Sinosteel).

From BRM's perspective this is the more costly option, and may no be the best short term outcome for BRM shareholders, but as I have said the guarantee of long term I/O supplies is more important to the Chinese than short term financial returns. I expect BRM and FRS may be taken over is FIRB allows it. The ALP/Greens may get nationalistic about this & try to stop it (the irony being that BRM was only forced in to position of being taken over because the regulators would not allow BHP access in the first place - it's one of the limitations of the current crop of pollies running around with no clarity or understanding of the implications of not forcing BHP to comply with its rail obligations).

All up however the price momentum is still strong, assuming the broader market does not tank