technicals brrrreakout, page-63

newcomers to the stock and thread can think whatever they like, coz the FUNDAMENTALS speak for themselves. You cant escape a net profit of circa 500-600mill using an IO price of 100AUD long term and costs of 40AUD.

lets say 500mill bring very conservative;

Now DOUBLE the shares on issue: 300mill

So EPS will be 500/300= $1.67

PE 10: 16.70

PE 15: $25.05

You can change the dliution around to whatever value you want, but a profit of circa 500mill is what we're looking at for the long term

BRM said 400mill NPAT or thereabouts , but that would insinuate a long term IO price of 80 dollars or so

Even so, 400mill NPAT/300mill shares = 1.33 in Earnings per share!

PE 10: 13.30

PE 15: $20

Midpoint is: $16.65

And this is NOT usinf IO price of 140AUD, its using 80UAD

YOU CANT ESCAPTE THE FUNDAMENTALS!

i SAY ITS WORTH 20 BUCKS EASY BEING THE FOURTH LARGEST IO PRODUCER

WHAT PE IS FMG ON?!

i think a PE of anywhere between 10-15 is adequate for sucj a large DSO resource

Midpoint is $16.65 using conservative long term price assumptions

Use an IO price of 120AUD; We get a MARGIN of 80AUD; 17mill * 803AUD = 1.36 bill in profit; RSPT 40% = 800 bill in NPAT!

Assume 400 mill shares + options:

We get an EPS of $2.00 per share

Give PE 10 = $20.00

Give PE 12= $24.00

Give PE 15: $30.00

BRM are using a long term price of about 80AUD-90AUD i suspect

***Looking back to original analysis where we use IO price 90AUD for a margin of 50AUD and DOUBLE the current issued capital, we got a valuation of $16.70 to $25.05 PE 10-15, so ill stick with that to be conservative

U cant really escape the fundamentals, every which way you look at it, the data suggests its worth AT LEAST 2.5 times what its trading at today and more like 4-5 times

Just run the figures and model it in excel , well all AT LEAST 2.5-3 times our mooney on this, and now the risk is going DOWN as the share price gets higher for a cap raising