newcomers to the stock and thread can think whatever they like,...

newcomers to the stock and thread can think whatever they like, coz the FUNDAMENTALS speak for themselves. You cant escape a net profit of circa 500-600mill using an IO price of 100AUD long term and costs of 40AUD.

lets say 500mill bring very conservative;

Now DOUBLE the shares on issue: 300mill

So EPS will be 500/300= $1.67

PE 10: 16.70

PE 15: $25.05

You can change the dliution around to whatever value you want, but a profit of circa 500mill is what we're looking at for the long term

BRM said 400mill NPAT or thereabouts , but that would insinuate a long term IO price of 80 dollars or so

Even so, 400mill NPAT/300mill shares = 1.33 in Earnings per share!

PE 10: 13.30

PE 15: $20

Midpoint is: $16.65

And this is NOT usinf IO price of 140AUD, its using 80UAD

YOU CANT ESCAPTE THE FUNDAMENTALS!

i SAY ITS WORTH 20 BUCKS EASY BEING THE FOURTH LARGEST IO PRODUCER

WHAT PE IS FMG ON?!

i think a PE of anywhere between 10-15 is adequate for sucj a large DSO resource

Midpoint is $16.65 using conservative long term price assumptions

Use an IO price of 120AUD; We get a MARGIN of 80AUD; 17mill * 803AUD = 1.36 bill in profit; RSPT 40% = 800 bill in NPAT!

Assume 400 mill shares + options:

We get an EPS of $2.00 per share

Give PE 10 = $20.00

Give PE 12= $24.00

Give PE 15: $30.00

BRM are using a long term price of about 80AUD-90AUD i suspect

***Looking back to original analysis where we use IO price 90AUD for a margin of 50AUD and DOUBLE the current issued capital, we got a valuation of $16.70 to $25.05 PE 10-15, so ill stick with that to be conservative

U cant really escape the fundamentals, every which way you look at it, the data suggests its worth AT LEAST 2.5 times what its trading at today and more like 4-5 times

Just run the figures and model it in excel , well all AT LEAST 2.5-3 times our mooney on this, and now the risk is going DOWN as the share price gets higher for a cap raising