ok- I share your feelings also share your disapoitments,and also I understand 100% your position and believe that..uhmm after two good announcements (G-d willing) what we will have ? the same 7.37 ?
Done..deal..I agree 100% but my thoughts go one step further and I invite you as well every single poster/reader to consider..
You can especulate, create dream scenarios,you can do what you want in the life,but obviously is not too much health deny evidences,common sense,or just avoid consider fair and based positions.
A- Each person here can (or must) answer what is the point for a Company like Petrochina buy 20% of Poseidon ? Don't rush saying their interest is some knowledge of COP to help them in China ventures..Yes that also is true..but just also. Companies like Petrochina need plan and prepare themselves for next month,next year and next decade. They come in like a "junior" friend and when you least expect they buy the remain 80% . Why ? Becauise they need..To them this is not "investm,ent cost" this is "raw material cost. They buuy x per gallon and sell Y per gallon. Simple, easy, straight,no dramas. They just need have a little bit more confidence of the entire volume tpo make "an entire offer". How can somebody deny this argument ? Or you defend they pay 20% of Poseidon because they want to be the junior... 40% kar, 40% Cop and 20% Petro..
B- I will not repeat all that.But please go to Pacific Rubiales website ,make a quick check what we are talking about. They enter with 35% but asking from scratech..But we also want to all holes the 35% pre-emp rights and the management of the drill. Nobody can just say.. ahhh irrelevant// No it isn't . As soon EMU show some oil,weak and not commercual(I assume) not even 10 days they announce they are IN in the next drill Bilby. You can't just pretend have no reason and they are good guys,or they are not aware of EMU. They know much better than all of us the entire project begin with Kangaroo-1 that is a highly succesfull..Bilby is much closer than EMU.Notr just that... suddenly Kar engage a rig to go another 6 steps.. How dare we can be to say.. ahhh.. bullshit..nothing is going on..all that is dust ..
Now that we put the facts (and just forget the 200m cash, and carvano and Peru
Lets ask a final question..
You are ungry the dshare just doesnt fly according with the fair value.. But you must ask why ? and also you must ask,... and this will change ?
Why ? we can stay hours in why's but one why nobody can't deny. Because some people come every day and sell andf sell and sell. Can somebody deny ?
Now ask a question.. but if this "guys" sell and sell and sell how come their shares never finish ?
The only "escape" answer should be... ahhh we have 5 funds and now we have 5 ,but all is another funds. Thats not the case. We have exactly the same ones. We have the same wellington,the same fidelity,recently a new mega investor (probably buying the retail shares during 1 1/2 year. Now answer.. How come sell sell sell and never fnish and none of mega holders publish they sold all ?
The lack of answer here can be the key to your concerns .
When you see such volatility in share like that and 400,000 shares every day "changing" hands you should go to the annual report and investigate,how many shares are in "market" (meaning outside funds and big investors). Soon you realize something is going on.
The share is under siege for long time since they discover yes we have gas.
The share is under "control" and any movement to go up, in question of days exist one orchestrade work to down the share. What can be better prove that the facts ?
When we were at 6..zephirus came positive we went to 7.37 and in 2 week we were back to 6,somebody must ask to himself.. How come ? Who decides this is the "top" of the range knowing he is carrying a share with plenty of othet Posedon investigation,brazil,peru,blablabla.. That not normal... The usual human beeing behavior is completly different...
I follow around 10 shares every single day,for long time.. Believe or not some have plenty in common.. Look Mesoblast(one that I follow).. and his sittuation is thousands times more risky than Kar. As soon MSB achieve 6 the market put him back to 6. And the phases is going on and closer and closer to end of process and all results 100% always 100% positive . Sounds crazy isnt it ?
Karoon,carry at that stage a huge reserve and we are in the estimation of this reserves (we are not more checking if ywe have,but how much we have).
The value 4.50 certainly doesnt represent even the most pessimistic person.
The pessimistic broker that value Kar at 6.00 (because the optimistic gave 8.80,told clearly about scenarios much more rosie with much more upside,and also WROTE in his report that is a target for takeover .
The share goes down because some people sell ..but some people buy.. Talk and ask to yourself.. Who is this guys that every day have more money to buy (because mine finish many days ago and I know most of the readers finish his buys also long time ago..
Who has so much money (do4esnt matter is the share cost 4.50 or 5.5) but every single day still come to the market people and buy all offers,day after day,week after week..
Its crazy isnt it ?
This is not BHP with an universe of investors everyday chasing and trading.. This is Karoon ..a ridiculous minor junior company in ASX. And is in ASX200 just because austrlian market is realy poor market... In Us should be in ASX100,000 !!
But everyday they come they buy..
Readers and Black..ask to yourselves..do you have today money to buy at 4.50 ? No ? becaue you bought at 4.90 or 5.50 or 5.90.. And every bosy else is smart and everybody else kepp from 7.37 (sold) and kept their money and now they buy ? That is not the factual events... The fact is... "new money" never could cover such daily volumes of buyers.. Exist buyers buying their own sells. This is fact . And finally now, you must ask..
For how long can they keep the "manouvre" to stay bellow 7 (or 7.37) while they increase their holds (probably never achieving the percentage that must publish as big holder).
My guess is... If the next two wells come from average to positive they can't more preassure because the mass volume of buyers will became not manageble to them.. Also under such siege the "takeover" shadow effect also can became reality and suddenly Petrochina can offer to buy 40% of Kar Poseidon and Pacific 65% of santos. How can the market accept a share at 6.50 is the cash at bank gives 8.5 ? (plus peru etc etc)
I'm at taht stage heavily in loss with Kar and I'm not blind about other kind of risks we run. But I keep positive,not because my holdings,but because always I buy shares that I can show to my wife and say... that why I bought...
And in Karoon case,I can easy show why I bought..
They have OIL they have cash, they have the best partners and now they have also a consumer partner...Theyhave on board guys preparing next step (maybe)as producers and also next step to tenders in Brazil.
I'm happy and positive the time will be the master to adjust this momentum..Its just a question of time !
Norberto
KAR Price at posting:
$4.58 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)