@mal85 - To be honest, I think $40m is a quite short of the mark. At $40 AUD per kg, that implies 1000T sold. Even at $35AUD, that's 1142T for the year. The current capacity is 30T per week, or 1500T per annum, and demand is already exceeding this figure.
That said, I have no idea where it'll end up at June 2020. This is moving so quickly, that using an entire financial year is almost meaningless, because it's future cash flows that matter, hence run rate. It also means the PE figure for an entire year is virtually useless, because future cash flow expectations are changing monthly.
But if you use 30T per week, or 1500T per annum, you get $60m per annum at $40AUD per KG. Quite frankly, using that figure is still not good enough, because we know they're increasing capacity - and these guys wouldn't do it needlessly. So 40T per week, or $1.6m per week of revenue, is probably more accurate - then factor in your margin, fixed cost and tax rate assumptions on that.
Also, don't forget all the other potential upsides, which include:
- these figures are all about powders only from my understanding, and there's the ability for ANO to add further value and therefore increase revenues/margins again on the same product.
- the potential for a one-off license fee for Alusion exclusivity. It sounds small, but it falls straight to the bottom line and is potentially tens of millions of dollars, which is not insignificant, even at the current market cap.
- a huge market, Europe, still untapped. They've mentioned that the European distributor isn't the best, and addressing this would be ideal.
- the benefits of white-labeling sunscreens (
@vestro has posted some great insights about that)
- FDA regulations
- Nano-phase's and Everzinc's current issues/expenses, and ANOs massive opportunity to take clients given a superior and cheaper product
- Regulatory pressures elsewhere in the world to ban chemical based sunscreens
- An amazing management team (shame CLH didn't vote in Lev's favour... would have done themselves a world of good)
- The conservative nature of management. Every step of the way they've erred on the side of caution, and overshot their (and my) expectations.
- Potential AUDUSD upside (although I don't know how much of a benefit that will provide)
How you boil that down to a single earnings figure is beyond me... I've given up forecasting full year earnings here, I'm always way off and end up funding others' poor choice in coffee
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@Huge Jaxxon - I assume those figures are meant to be FY20, not FY19?
(20min delay)