Technicals, page-113

Still can’t align the revenue figures quoted by ANO and the price of $40/kg. I am *guessing* that’s what they charge Ethical Zinc because you seem pretty sure about it!

FY19 capacity was going to be approx 800tpa in FY18 reported at FY18. We know that capacity is ramping up to ~2200tpa in FY20. We know there was a price decrease in January 2019. We know FY19 sales will be 12.5m or thereabouts, even giving a maximum of 15m (20% beat), assuming average FY20 capacity is ~3x FY19 capacity I cannot see how anyone can come to a figure of 80m revenue in FY20 or $40/kg average price- the numbers simply don’t add up.

All the points about Alusion revenue, other R&D, further capacity increases better bottom line profitability I can wholly agree with and in fact in my figures above of revenue 40m and NPAT of 13m the share price is actually not unreasonable.

Taking a step back, I can see the argument that the specifics don’t actually matter that much and I am happy holding at $7...but at what price is there literally no more upside to capture and significant risk?