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72.5¢ advance zinctek limited

As you say, you are guessing. I can confirm you guess wrong! See...

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vestro

1,112 Posts.

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27/05/19

21:29

Post #: 38769409
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Originally posted by mal85 ↑

Still can’t align the revenue figures quoted by ANO and the price of $40/kg. I am *guessing* that’s what they charge Ethical Zinc because you seem pretty sure about it!

FY19 capacity was going to be approx 800tpa in FY18 reported at FY18. We know that capacity is ramping up to ~2200tpa in FY20. We know there was a price decrease in January 2019. We know FY19 sales will be 12.5m or thereabouts, even giving a maximum of 15m (20% beat), assuming average FY20 capacity is ~3x FY19 capacity I cannot see how anyone can come to a figure of 80m revenue in FY20 or $40/kg average price- the numbers simply don’t add up.

All the points about Alusion revenue, other R&D, further capacity increases better bottom line profitability I can wholly agree with and in fact in my figures above of revenue 40m and NPAT of 13m the share price is actually not unreasonable.

Taking a step back, I can see the argument that the specifics don’t actually matter that much and I am happy holding at $7...but at what price is there literally no more upside to capture and significant risk?

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As you say, you are guessing. I can confirm you guess wrong!

See you at $15.

ANO Price at posting: $7.02 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 72.5¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $45.26M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
72.5¢	72.5¢	72.5¢	$996	1.374K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	14660	72.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
73.0¢	500	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	14660	0.720
1	425	0.705
1	455	0.655
0	0	0.000
0	0	0.000

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.730	500	1
0.780	100	1
0.785	222	1
0.790	500	1
0.840	965	1

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