@mal85 - Just reading through - are you using their forecasts from the presentation on the 26th of April of 12.6m? I'm guessing that is WAY out of date, but I can't confirm... but hopefully the below makes sense.
Consider you have $1.8m PBT for Jan-Mar. Then using revenues of 12.6m, you can adjust using Volume weighted revenues, to figure out what revenues were in the Jan-Mar quarter.
You'd get 195T for Jan-Mar (15T per week for 13 weeks) and 390T for Apr-Jun (30T per week, for 13 weeks) for a total of 585T.
So, Jan-Mar revenue would be (195/585) * 7.3m forecast revenue
= 2.43m revenue using their forecast.
It's hard to believe they had 1.8m PBT on 2.4m revenues. It throws out those forecasts in a massive way. Even if it were 1.8m PBT on 3m, it still doesn't quite add up, as they had added expenses of installing new ovens.
I don't think using those forecasts is the best idea - even though management have not explicitly said so.
On the flip side - great to see people actually attempting to calculate where the upside stops!
Technicals, page-115
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