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900m$ MC by end of 2020 is the BEST case scenario (even then it...

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    900m$ MC by end of 2020 is the BEST case scenario (even then it is a stretch). I base my prices off 3 cases, using bear, normal and bull - PE's of 20, 30 and 40. Given assumptions of 40T/wk (could very easily be 55T/wk by EOY if my capacity increases are accurate - but lets stick with 40 for simplicity).

    That's revenue of $72.8m for 35$/kg (40,000 kg * 35 * 52) - I believe a profit margin of 35% would be conservative. That means $25.48m profit. For the PE scenarios above thats
    Bear (20 PE) - $9.00 SP - $520m MC
    Normal (30 PE) - $13.00 SP - $755m MC
    Bull (40 PE) - $17.50 SP - $1,075m MC

    Take this with a grain of salt as I'm a few beers deep. Let me know if I got something wrong.
    Last edited by Pinginhard: 29/04/19
 
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