Technicians please, page-18

Hello Eshmun

I like that you try to bring some logic into the economic mess. Unfortunately we have left the time when we were able to forecast via economic theory or empirical forecasting. I think a 'black swan' event will cause havoc - when and what is everyone's guess. Too many ' balls are in the air and not enough hands to catch them all'. Japan is finished - just a walking zombie. Demographically, business culture wise, attitude, etc. Australia has attracted in the past a lot of funny money (illegal money) from all over the world but has now committed to put restrictions or controls in place for example real estate agents will not be able to take cash anymore and the source of funding has o be revealed. While many might think that is only a neglible proportion it increased house prices on the margins and that's all what is takes.
Europe is a basket case (some sort of union but leaving the vital parts (sovereignty of states, etc) out. If the money machine (Germany, France, Netherland, etc.) stops it is all over.
China has enough to do with the arrival and maintenance of the wealth in the population.
The USA is like always exploiting everyone were it can and otherwise navel gazing.
The BRICs are in financial dire straits through low commodity prices (priced in USD) and hence rising inflation.
So lots of opportunities to have a new crisis. Put on top El Ninjo, individual political egoism, rise of left and right wings in individual countries etc. and your attempts to explain the possible future become really a brave effort.
I have given up to trade currencies or indices just doesn't make currently any sense (money). Made good money with Gold and Agriculture in the current year under the premises of back to the basics.
Very interesting thought pattern Eshmun
IMO